Max Kennerly: I like to panic as much as any Democrat, but my general view still holds: SCOTUS gave Dems a tailwind with Dobbs. We haven't even started the wall-to-wall attack ads of Trump bragging about ending Roe v. Wade. When that happens in September and October, there will be a big movement away from Trump.

I like to panic as much as any Democrat, but my general view still holds: SCOTUS gave Dems a tailwind with Dobbs. We haven't even started the wall-to-wall attack ads of Trump bragging about ending Roe v. Wade. When that happens in September and October, there will be a big movement away from Trump.

NEW: Biden has narrowed Trump’s lead in swing states despite a widely panned presidential debate performance, the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll finds

Biden Narrows Gap With Trump in Swing States Despite Debate Losswww.bloomberg.com The incumbent trails his GOP rival by just 2 points across key states, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult shows, even as three in 10 Democrats say he should leave the race.

I agree. But what I really want to see is Biden-style media coverage of Trump.

With this kind of coverage you’d think Trump was still the incumbent, and Biden still the challenger.

My additional view on this is that the extremely cash strapped state Republican parties won't have the money to counter the aforementioned Democratic ad blitz with any meaningful local candidate support, GotV effort or TV ad buys

There was a graph the other day showing weekly digital spending by the two campaigns and the difference was stark! Maybe the GOP has others doing all the work or maybe Trump and his RNC is keeping more funds for themselves and letting others kinda flail

From here bsky.app/profile/swol...

goddamn, lol

“Maybe the GOP has others doing all the work” NYT, CNN, Washington Post, Fox News…

Project 2025 opposition ads will be the icing on the cake.

I agree. That shit moves the needle like nothing I’ve ever seen in politics. I think there’s also an instinctive recognition that Trump is intolerably anti-American that is of less magnitude but similarly firm and cross-cutting.

I still holding out that GOP placed key people in mass media to write OP pieces & this is all ratfucking political theater, & voters are gonna make GOP in many districts pay a heavy price treading all over established Liberal freedoms previously accepted by many as necessary personal choice issues.

Do you think they will have ads bragging about it? I think many gop, presidential race too, will avoid that topic as much as possible

I think GOP will avoid it like the plague. The ads of Trump bragging about it will come from Dem PACs.

Yup, they are infighting now on avoiding calling (openly) for a total ban in their platform.

I’m hoping the ads say sure joes old but he’s got the wisdom to not take away your freedoms.

Just ignore the age and talk about the difference between the Democrats and Republican platforms and how it will harm Americans if the GOP wins.

So sexy

Ah got it. Makes sense

"The GOP will avoid that topic like the plague" is not a metaphor either.

The ads will be clips of them bragging about it before they realized what an albatross the issue would become.

Framing this as a horse race between Trump and Biden as people was always going to result in a crap shoot. If it becomes about policies, Biden wins in a landslide. Trump’s main organizing principal is schadenfreude. Dobbs led to attacks on IVF and Griswold. Eventually you get friendly fire.

The GOP in my state are putting out ads about how they *didn't* ban abortion and how it's still legal in our state (not that they didn't try). They're getting a lot of flack from pro-forced-birthers about it

Trump can't visit a dozen countries because he's a felon. That's going to be usable a whole bunch of ways.

Yeah, ultimately the election will be about this imo.

I think abortion is the key to a lot of the race. If Kamala was too of ticket, I think it'd land even harder. That plus abortion ballot measures in NV, AZ, and FL could really help

The ads won't be about that. They'll be clips of his vacant stare and "Do you want this to be the person across from Xi?"

GOP attack ads will be all about Biden's mental state. They will land, but they will not hit nearly as hard as Dem attack ads about abortion.

The attack ads I've seen so far combine inflation and dementia. Even though inflation is way back down, the fact that prices are well up since 2020 is a vulnerability.

I don’t think that hits relative to dobbs. People recognize the stakes. You get trump you lose abortion rights and you gain chaos. You get Biden you don’t. It’s not about the men it’s about the outcomes.

How can he make the case for a right to abortion?

I assume you mean how can he make the case when his options are limited, given Supreme Court terms and uncertain party control over the legislature? My answer is that doesn’t matter. It’s about what side he’s on.

No. I meant how can he make the case when he becomes incoherent in the evenings, during primetime.

And also he's well known to detest saying the word "abortion." And what we need is an in-your-face woman to shout "Hey! Abortion is healthcare!"

Because he beat Medicare! Too soon? Because the fascists are going to be hitting that point every day up until the election.

Always possible things are different this time around, but historically speaking Americans don’t care about foreign policy, at least when picking presidents.

No one but the psychos and weirdos are paying attention to an election three months away during a long holiday weekend. Those of us talking about it in the first place are the outliers

Nothing wrong with perfecting our talking points in the very least.

Conservatives don't have the numbers. They never will. That's what happens when you exclude most of the population and it's why they have to cheat every way they can. How many kids turned 18 since the last election after years of attacks on their gender, autonomy, and actual lives?

Vote blue no matter who - barring the candidate being a closet Nazi, I’ll vote for them in the general election no matter how many feet they are into the grave. Release Scrappy Joe!

I’m far from pollyanna on the election, but we’re still more than a full month out before things get into full swing.

The NYT's bizarre, pathological petulance has left Biden *no choice* but to stay in. The party should have understood that last week, but some of them stupidly fell for the NYT's "we're just looking out for the republic" scam.

Informing them about tRump's Nazi plan #Project2025 may help as well.

You’re forgetting Trump’s superpower; he’s funny. And cable will cover him 24 hours a day, unfiltered

Base-humor, punch-down funny, of course. He has that kind of "charisma".