Gerry Doyle: deterrence is a funny thing. on some level it is just... vibes. an actor won't do a thing because it fears the consequences. but it is also very real. a lot of ink has been spilled about what the west is deterred from vis a vis ukraine, but deterrence is causing arguably bigger issues for russia:

deterrence is a funny thing. on some level it is just... vibes. an actor won't do a thing because it fears the consequences. but it is also very real. a lot of ink has been spilled about what the west is deterred from vis a vis ukraine, but deterrence is causing arguably bigger issues for russia:

despite knowing where all the logistical hubs are for ukraine military assistance, russia is deterred from striking them. russia has also been deterred from using wmd in ukraine (please please don't say tear gas), and from a forceful response to arrival of more/better western weapons

nuclear arsenals create an absurd amount of 5-d chess type thinking that is difficult to unpack. but the real-world effects are often easy to see

But it's difficult to know the motivations behind those non-actions. Maybe they wouldn't have anyway.

yes, this too! it's easy to tie in knots

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