i'm getting so, so tired of the doomerism on here, and the press loves covering shit like a horse race instead of explaining fundamentals and what's at play, a job that seems to fall to @golikehellmachine.com on here.
so here's a thread about why i'd rather be biden — yes, biden — right now
2/
the baseline for this election is 2020. normally "the last election" might not be a perfect baseline, but it's the same guys with the roles reversed. both are quasi-incumbents, and we have a four year record for the both of them, with some recency bias for biden.
here's that map
3/ now, for trump to win, he has to do three things:
1) hold nc
2) flip georgia and arizona
3) make headway in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania
for biden to win, he has to hold wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania.
4/ holding nc:
trump won nc in 2020 by 1.5 points, the closest red state of 2020. in 2020 dem roy cooper won the governor's race by 4.5 pts, meaning a lot of trump/cooper split tickets.
for this round, the nc gop nominated a literal nazi as their gubernatorial candidate. not ideal!
