Natalie Jackson

@nataliej.bsky.social

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Opinions are my own. VP GQR - polling for Dems, columnist at National Journal, polsci PhD.

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Natalie Jackson

‘Other’ voters are the most important bloc right now. (@nataliej.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/240522-top...

My National Journal column for this week: Why do different polls show results that can't be squared (like this weekend's CNN national and CBS battleground)? A look at poll differences, using the Total Survey Error Framework and those two polls as examples. www.nationaljournal.com/s/724931/the...

The five factors behind poll variancewww.nationaljournal.com Why does one survey show Trump with a big lead and another shows a tied race? It's more complicated than just the randomness of responses.

My National Journal column this week: Young voters aren't necessarily realigning, but they are dealigning. www.nationaljournal.com/s/724856/you...

Young voters aren’t realigning; they’re de-aligningwww.nationaljournal.com Voters under 30 have been eschewing party labels for a while now.

I just don't understand how one looks at these time series and says "yup, there's momentum swinging around." Such terrible reporting.

This is probably the best, most interesting overview of young political views I've seen in a while. Time series, gender, partisanship, ideology, policy views - it covers all of it! dellavolpe.substack.com/p/analysis-o...

Analysis of the Harvard Youth Poll (Part 2, buggy charts corrected)dellavolpe.substack.com Observations and implications from recent campaign cycles, the gender gap, culture wars, and stereotypes

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The bit everyone is saying is a “statement on Columbia” is actually part of their Passover message: www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo...

Politics-land: "ooohhhhh, Johnson is in trouble! He cooperated with Democrats! That's the cardinal sin!" The rest of the world: "Oh, hey, Congress actually cooperated to get something done. Can't they do that more often?"

I'm enjoying this new project from @juliaazari.bsky.social @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social Today, Julia on WI polls: "Wisconsin, likely to be a decisive state if not the decisive state in November, is basically impossible to read at this point." goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/presidents...

Presidents, parties and my musings on the latest Marquette Pollgoodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com Partisanship rules everything around me

Universe, give me the confidence of a man who sees a question asking for users of a specific thing, and answers "I haven't used [specific thing]" ... and then gives four paragraphs of his opinion.

This week's column is a little different, but it's still about what polls can tell us about society, especially over time. Lord help me, I agree with Gen Z - but I don't think they appreciate how fast things changed. @nationaljournal (unlocked) www.nationaljournal.com/s/724781/gen...

Gen Z is right: Sex and the City is a relic of a bygone erawww.nationaljournal.com Attitudes on race, sex, and LGBTQ issues have changed dramatically over the last 25 years.

We're quickly losing perspective on just how big these things were back then - and how little other tv entertainment we had compared to now. This whole circus probably makes zero sense to most of Gen Z.

In his fame and infamy, O.J. Simpson was an example of what celebrity could make of a person and a symbol of what the media could make of a country, our chief TV critic writes.

O.J., Made in America, Made by TVwww.nytimes.com In O.J. Simpson’s life and trials, television was a spotlight, a microscope and a mirror.

why I'm a skeptic about declaring political realignments based on poll subgroups, here's a wonky piece on how weighting affects *everything*. Polling has become more art than science these days. My latest @nationaljournal (unlocked) www.nationaljournal.com/s/724711/can...

The weighting is the hardest partwww.nationaljournal.com Tweaking a survey’s sample has transformed from science to art, which is why we may not be able to trust numbers that show big shifts among demographic groups.

Arguing about whether abortion will matter in 2024 elections is the most ridiculous shit. Yes, Trump is trying to neutralize it. Newsflash: Trump vs. Biden isn't the only election happening.

Coming back over here - I lapsed on posting in both places, but the Twitter/X vibes have not improved, trust me.

There's still a lot of grasping at straws to explain why people feel so economically unstable. Y'all. It's not that hard. My @nationaljournal column from a few weeks ago, reposted on GQR's website: "It's still the pandemic, stupid." www.gqrr.com/news/nationa...

I also think there's a polling bias given 2016 & 2020 issues in polling to not as heavily question numbers that look more Trump-friendly to avoid criticism. That is not good.

Let's talk about differential partisan nonresponse. Young Democrats are currently mad at Biden over Israel. Gee, I wonder if that's affecting whether they answer polls and how... www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...

A number of public polls show young voters turning on Bidenwww.nbcnews.com Sunday's national NBC News poll is the latest in a string of surveys showing much closer results among young voters than Democrats have recently enjoyed.

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There are a bunch of reasons why polls, no matter how well done, can’t predict the outcome of an election that’s still a year away. I looked at several, including a smart insight from @nataliej.bsky.social www.latimes.com/politics/new...

I am an expert on polls. Here's why they can't tell you if Biden beats Trump againwww.latimes.com Voters haven't yet focused on their choice. That's what campaigns are for. Recent speeches by Trump and Biden give a taste of what that campaign will look like.

This article shows how malleable some people's responses to the polls are. Multiple people expressed doubt or shifted their preference. It can be hard for politicos to understand this, but not everyone spends their time obsessing over Trump & Biden. www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/u...

We're so obsessed with Trump vs. Biden in the polls, and who benefits from what view of the economy, that we're missing what is really behind a lot of economic panic and why Democrats win despite bad economic views. www.nationaljournal.com/s/723314/its...

It’s still the pandemic, stupidwww.nationaljournal.com Polls are telling us people are traumatized. We’re too busy with Trump vs. Biden to notice.

We're hiring at GQR! Multiple positions - intern, entry level, and a few years' polling experience. Read the openings here. Share with people who might be interested & message me with questions. gqrr.bamboohr.com/careers

Current Openingsgqrr.bamboohr.com Take a look at the current openings at GQRR

Hello everyone - We're now reposting (with permission, of course) my National Journal columns on the GQR website! In case you missed it, this one was originally published 10/24. I'm happy to work in such a supportive place! www.gqrr.com/news/__trash...

National Journal Column from Vice President Natalie Jackson: Mitt Romney’s ‘unskewing’ - GQRwww.gqrr.com

Media/pundits: No one likes Biden! He’s old! Also media/pundits: OMG polls show Biden has weaknesses! Duh. It’s a year out. Pay attention. Don’t over-read.

Polls right now are shaped by a nearly-singular focus on Biden’s negative attributes. It’s logical to ignore Trump’s daily antics for now, but in a real campaign this is going to shift and not help Trump.

Sometimes I forget just how long I've been on brand. I mean, really it was 2006, but Facebook notes weren't a thing then.

100 years from now, Britney Spears will be studied as part of feminist history. History is not going to judge the era kindly - and that will be absolutely correct. If a rich famous white woman suffers this way, what hope is there for women without those advantages? www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

Apparently it's national black cat day. This is my blind baby, Tuffy. He's the sweetest, happiest lil guy.

Photo of the happy camper, before he crawled into my lap

I might feel terrible, but one of my cats is extremely happy with my life choice to work from home today. Purring like a jet engine in my lap. At least one of us is having fun, buddy.

This week on Leading Indicators: The "unskewing" of Mitt Romney... remember 2012? Yeah, it was a long time ago. Both polling and Romney crashed into Trump. www.nationaljournal.com/s/723092/mit...

Mitt Romney’s ‘unskewing’www.nationaljournal.com The senator's 2012 presidential run feels like multiple political lifetimes ago.

How to elect a speaker: 1. Randomize a list of all Republican house members. 2. Hold a vote on each one sequentially until someone gets to 217. 3. If no one gets 217 votes, Republicans are forced to work with Democrats to select a mutually acceptable speaker.