Jonathan Bernstein

@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social

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Good Politics/Bad Politics - Subscribe! Also I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2024.

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Jonathan Bernstein

What are the big takeaways from Iran's election? @claryc.bsky.social asks @hbanai.bsky.social how we should even think about the Iranian presidency, what we know about the winner Masoud Pezeshkian, the potential succession plan for the Supreme Leader of #Iran, and more:

My thoughts/explainer on Iran's non-democratic elections. goodauthority.org/news/iranian... With thanks to @goodauth.bsky.social @claryc.bsky.social @profsaunders.bsky.social

Iranian voters picked a moderate presidentgoodauthority.org Iranians just voted in the moderate candidate, not the ultraconservative on the presidential ballot.

Must read thread

I'd like to add some historical context to the discussions around Project 2025. The discourse misses why Project 2025 is so important. As I write about in my book, Heritage has built something like Project 2025 for every election since 1980, but this time it's different. Big 🧵

Was busy having a great day today and just catching up now on the news cycle but...is it bad that my favorite part of the insipid "blitz primary" thing is that they specified ranked choice voting?

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This didn't work the first time, of course. My rule of thumb is: Work to make yourself less vulnerable to fair criticism. You can never make yourself less vulnerable to unfair criticism, so don't try. So the key question is if you think there actually is a problem with Biden serving 4 years.

They’re already doing the birtherism again. Lol

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I think the hybrid theory is that these two factors would mean his agenda would be very narrow, major change on a few select issues but largely unchanged on across most of government

Theory 1: This time, Trump would hit the ground running. Theory 2: His potential transition is already in chaos. (And as always: that he's inept doesn't mean he's not dangerous; quite the contrary).

If it’s not Project 2025, then who is planning Trump’s transition—new @3streamsblog.bsky.social medium.com/3streams/if-...

If it’s not Heritage, who is planning Trump’s transitionmedium.com The former President need to clarify who’s in charge

One thing: as people have said, many have known someone who declined rapidly. But we’ve *also* someone who was cognitively aces but gets treated as an idiot because of physical and/or superficial issues. And…

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By my count, 41 different incumbents or nominees in competitive US House races (tossup or lean) tweeted photos of themselves at July 4 parades yesterday in their districts. HOW GREAT IS AMERICA

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What kind of illiberal lunacy is this? www.theguardian.com/politics/art... Think of who you don't want in power. Now imagine them enforcing this law. A society without misinformation is inherently unfree (and impossible).

Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegalwww.theguardian.com Labour administration says ‘globally pioneering’ legislation will be brought in before next Senedd elections in 2026

If Trump knows nothing about Project 2025 he's way more out of it than Biden. (Trump is lying but he is, in fact, way more out of it than Biden, who may be in fact be too out of it to be president).

The ramped-up hits on Project 2025 must be landing — Trump just shoved it right in front of the bus

This is an excellent question, and the answer so far is "it depends." See this nice @smotus.bsky.social piece on it. smotus.substack.com/p/is-a-party... To add one observation...

Hey, poli scientists. If Dems succeed in (1) self-organizing to remove successful, all-but-nominated incumbent and (2) coalescing around veep, isn’t that evidence of an effective, resilient party? It’s only been week since debate horror supplanted SOTU impressions. @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social

This is very good.

The Supreme Court’s immunity decision sidesteps history. Those who framed the Constitution agreed that unchecked presidential power was a terrible idea. Read the latest from @rudalev.bsky.social here: goodauthority.org/news/immunit...

The Supreme Court’s immunity decision sidesteps historygoodauthority.org Immunity for Donald Trump and future presidents does the Constitution, the country, and even the Supreme Court itself no favors.

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😳

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It is good and normal for Joe Biden to sleep like an 81-year old, and he's a better president 6 hours a day than Trump was for the 17 minutes a day that he paid attention to anything and the other 12 hours that he was awake doing stupid crap. But still, "needs more sleep" is a disastrous message.

My 4th listening turns out to have been mostly old stuff: Louis Armstrong Los Lobos Aretha The Breeders P!nk Digital Underground Violent Femmes The Go-Go's Ramones Janelle Monáe Bob Dylan Ella

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Independence Day seems an appropriate occasion to ponder presidential immunity on @goodauth.bsky.social … goodauthority.org/news/immunit...

The thing that really does have me concerned about Biden is that we're a week out and he hasn't done or even scheduled three or four things like this. A year ago he was clearly capable of doing such things.

Biden should go on Hot Ones, tbh. idk if it'd help him. I just think he should do it.

Someone with skills needed to put FDR into that picture.

IMO this is a straight-up ageist and ableist image, no?

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m.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZTY...

YouTubem.youtube.com Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

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Another possibility:

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The Declaration episode of HBO's "John Adams." www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7o5...

John Adams - Writing the Declaration of Independence (with subs)www.youtube.com YouTube video by Doxa

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Network, the true Bicentennial favorite

Howard Beale in Network 1976 I'm as mad as hellyoutu.be Howard Beale's (Peter Finch) famous "mad as hell" call-out in Network.

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1776, Hamilton, and ID4.

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We’re watching Jaws when we get home tonight.

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Jaws, obviously. Always good to watch the Great McGinty, too. A history movie, like Blazing Saddles? An immigration saga, like Night at the Opera? I also feel like a movie about how awful the hereditary aristocracy is would be appropriate, so maybe the 1937 Prince and the Pauper with Errol Flynn?

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Celebrate the 4th with a few Federalist Papers/immunity decision thoughts from yours truly. @3streamsblog.bsky.social medium.com/3streams/wha...

What the court got wrong this weekmedium.com How the Supreme Court’s Immunity Decision Ignores Madisonian Logic to Anoint an Imperial Presidency

I see Turner is showing The Music Man today, which is excellent...What else is on y'all's viewing list for the 4th? The Godfather? Do the Right Thing? Kane? American Graffiti? Bill & Ted? That DS9 scene where Quark and Garak talk about root beer?

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As a constitutional scholar, I am well aware of the serious headwinds and challenges facing the US on the nation's birthday. It will be bad, whatever happens in the Fall elections. But I also know enough US history that resistance is not futile and we have many historical models of it.

My item for the 4th. Enjoy the day! goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/happy-4th

Happy 4thgoodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com Here's to a political holiday for a political nation.