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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 2 mo
this is meeting some reasonable and thoughtful pushback. 2020 was the highest turnout as percent population we've ever had in this country by a good margin. I think women might be able to sustain that pace but men won't. obv I am optimistic about results
Avatar post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 2 mo
I expect this to be lower turnout than 2020, at least as percent of electorate and maybe in raw numbers
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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 2 mo
we were at like 67% of potential voters in 2020 after cruising around 60% for the prior four presidential elections and lower than that for decades before.
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot @nbeaudrot.bsky.social · 2 mo
2018 was 53.4, 2022 was 52.2, covid was obviously a factor in 2020 ... I think anything in between "Obama 12" and "one pp above Obama '08" is possible.
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Mr. Nick Beaudrot @nbeaudrot.bsky.social · 2 mo
My understanding is that as crazy as it sounds there's a fair bit of cycling from "didn't not vote in 2020 or 2022" to "voting in 2024", but I think it's ~impossible to figure out who that is.