Strangely, current Biden nomination dynamics overlap somewhat with protest dynamics in that both are often well described as part of a “social cascade.” 1/
A common analogy for a social cascade is to a standing ovation. Curtain drops and everyone is thinking, “do I stand?” They’re paying attention to those around them but especially to those in front. Is there a coordinating signal that everyone sees? 2/
I’d argue debate was the signal. Every power player in Dem party saw it. Now, cascade is slowing moving outward. We’re seeing growing number of party leaders, donors, media, etc take a stand, and others are watching to see if they should join, too. Nothing is certain but Biden is losing crowd.
Absolutely the debate was the signal. For me, I thought all the GOP claims of Biden's age & incoherence & frailness were wildly exaggerated, & then, when it mattered most, I was stunned to see exactly what the GOP was saying.
But Biden must either not be like that v often, or a lot of Dem leaders knew & weren't talking about it. Bc clearly they should have known long before me.
