Omar Wasow

@owasow.bsky.social

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Asst Prof, UC Berkeley, Political Science. Study protests, stats & race: 1/ Agenda Seeding http://j.mp/agenda-seeding 2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks http://j.mp/bundle-of

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No one single thing explains any given election outcome. But Biden already wasn't on pace to win. Even before the debate, Andrew Gelman's forecast model for The Economist gave Biden a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election, with terrible trend lines. That's why the Democratic leadership is panicking.

People keep saying, “why are folks losing their minds over one night?” Well, it wasn’t just one night. It’s avoiding press conferences. It’s skipping a Super Bowl interview. And, post-debate, it’s “just 32 minutes of combined public comments over 5 days, none of it off the cuff.” wapo.st/4f3LCBI

Biden thought he had it under control. Then it got worse.wapo.st The inside story of the Biden team’s failure over nine days to contain the crisis from his debate with Trump.

Can’t find it in the schedule, can someone tell me when the match between Project 2025 vs 1619 Project is playing?

Listening to interview and disheartened. Even without questions about capacity, Biden fails to make a strong case for himself—lots of self-aggrandizing comments about foreign policy, little about #1 issue, cost of living—and waits ~18 minutes in (!) to offer a strong critique of Trump. #notfine

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A modern version of the emperor’s new clothes, except it’s the emperor’s too old.

One twist of last week is politically savvy Dem insiders—including Biden’s closest advisors—believed POTUS was aging but capable of a winning debate performance while low information voters repeatedly said he’s too old. So, oddly, it was elites who were actually ill-informed and caught by surprise.

This about India, not US, but a similar pattern of mainstream news outlets missing a major story about the country’s leader, partly due to state efforts at controlling the narrative and partly due to journalists unable to see their own “information bubbles.” Gift link www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/w...

India’s Cable News Predicted a Big Modi Win. How Did They Get It So Wrong?www.nytimes.com Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slim election victory has forced India to reflect on how fawning coverage may have obscured a wave of opposition.

NYT Poll: Majority say Trump “went so far that he threatened American democracy,” and 63% view Biden as the “risky choice” vs 56% for Trump. 🤷‍♂️ www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Omar Wasow

When the automated reminder text doesn’t go as planned:

Strangely, current Biden nomination dynamics overlap somewhat with protest dynamics in that both are often well described as part of a “social cascade.” 1/

Today’s 538 podcast made an interesting point: — Despite Trump’s many issues, base remains with him so GOP elites fall in line with party leader — With Biden, ~75% of base think Dems have better shot with someone else, so looming question is whether Dem elites will follow base or party leader

In light of recent news, perhaps of interest from 2020: How to Stop a Power Grab www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

How to Stop a Power Grabwww.newyorker.com As democracy hangs in the balance, activists are drawing lessons from the study of civil resistance.

After reading @chrislhayes.bsky.social 2004 essay, had thought that engaged voters are like people making a purchasing decision on features and warranty (issues). Low engagement voters are like folks making a purchasing decision largely on brand reputation (character). chrishayes.org/articles/dec...

Decision Makers · Chris Hayeschrishayes.org For those who follow politics, there are few things more mysterious, more inscrutable, more maddening than the mind of the undecided voter. In this year's election, when the choice was so stark and the differences between the candidates were so obvious, how could any halfway intelligent human remain undecided for long? "These people," Jonah Goldberg once wrote of undecided voters, on a rare occasion when he probably spoke for the entire political class, "can't make up their minds, in all likelihood, because either they don't care or they don't know anything."

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Omar Wasow

I’ve Stopped Using Box Plots. Should You? | Nightingale nightingaledvs.com/ive-stopped-... #dataviz #StatSky I agree with much of what is written in the post. The box of the boxplot is intuitive, the whiskers not so much. 1/

My guess is if you could run a secret poll of all Dem members of Congress, governors, and other influential actors, a majority would now opt to have Harris 2024 over Biden 2024. But private coordination isn’t same as public call, so Biden folks are fighting any perception that “dam breaks,” until…

Would be curious to see occurrence of "dam breaks Biden" by hour on Twitter.

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Omar Wasow

The classic text on this by @chrislhayes.bsky.social is still jaw-dropping to read 20 years later archive.is/V3sbx

swing voters and undecided voters basically by definition think about and engage with politics differently than anyone on this site, anyone who writes for the ny times, and the vast majority of the times’ subscribers. otherwise they wouldn’t be undecided/swing voters.

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Omar Wasow

Americanists and lawyers ask, what does the Constitution say? Comparativists ask, who controls the High Court, the militia, and the clerics?

6-3 for total immunity is devastating. This isn’t a ruling for 45, this is permission for 47.

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Omar Wasow

"It is still the battle between two opposite civilizations—the one created and sustained by slavery, and the other framed and fashioned in the spirit of liberty and humanity, and this conflict will not be ended until one or the other shall be completely adopted in every section of our ... country."

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Omar Wasow

I’m the only person who's naked at this gender reveal party

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Omar Wasow

HIV researchers and activists hail 'the best news ever': Results from a large clinical trial in Africa showed that a twice-yearly injection of a new drug gave young women total protection from the virus. #ShareGoodNewsToo www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/h...

New Drug Provides Total Protection From H.I.V. in Trial of Young African Womenwww.nytimes.com An injection given just twice a year could herald a breakthrough in protecting the population that has the highest infection rates.

From 2019 but useful to consider Harris as a potentially strong coalition-building candidate. fivethirtyeight.com/features/why...

This isn’t complicated. If Biden has advanced dementia then Thursday night’s showing is really him, but hard then to explain Friday’s lively rally. Alternatively, brain is 2% of weight yet consumes ~20+% of energy and is highly sensitive to low energy states, particularly among groups like elderly.

Biden clearly exhibiting signs of cognitive decline from aging and, possibly, illness. His family and staff would do well to read Chris Palmer, MD’s book Brain Energy for a scientific approach to to combating neurodegenerative disease and supporting general brain health. brainenergy.com

Brain Energy: A Revolutionary Breakthrough in Understanding Mental Health--and Improving Treatment for Anxiety, Depression, OCD, PTSD, and Morebrainenergy.com The book that will forever change the way we understand and treat mental health.

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Omar Wasow

Some poll rules of thumb for today. 1) After major events, beware differential nonresponse producing a temporary bounce for the candidate with more enthused supporters. 2) Remember people aren't accurate at predicting what will change their views. As always, direct vote choice is the best question.

11-dimensional chess hypothesis: Biden staffers pushed for early debate *because* they were concerned about his decline and wanted to force public reckoning.

Biden needs to practice blinking.

Someone please buy Biden one of these to help him get more air into his lungs www.airofit.com

Homepagewww.airofit.com Airofit breathing trainer is a revolutionary respiratory muscle training system that boosts athletic performance, health, and well-being.

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Omar Wasow

"The number of protests each year more than tripled between 2006 and 2020 according to one global study" www.nature.com/articles/d41...