Perry Bacon: "With the unknown candidates, there is more upside potential. Novelty is always a powerful force in politics. And the electorate right now is screaming for something new and different," writes @leedrutman.bsky.social. leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-many-u...

"With the unknown candidates, there is more upside potential. Novelty is always a powerful force in politics. And the electorate right now is screaming for something new and different," writes @leedrutman.bsky.social. leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-many-u...

The many uncertainties of saying good Bidenleedrutman.substack.com Sometimes the risk of staying the course is greater than changing the course. Here’s how I’m thinking about the choice Democrats have to make, and the consequences for 2024 and beyond.

Sorry, Perry. I've got to stop following someone who keeps pushing this stuff.

same

blocking and moving on

Yeah. It's too bad. I've liked what Perry writes, but he's gotten on the bandwagon.

I'm just unfollowing, not blocking, to leave room for him to get his good sense back.

In his defense, he wrote in January '23 that Biden should not run again, but let an open primary play out. So it's more like the bandwagon catching him than him joining it. It does seem Bacon may underestimate costs of switching now, which IMO leaves Harris as the only plausible alternative.

Get behind Biden. That's the whole game.

Very likely so. If Biden's condition is genuinely sufficiently bad (something we can't know), him resigning to make Harris POTUS and de facto nominee could plausibly work better. But that's Biden's call, and the perception of being forced out would be an additional negative.

A shortcoming in this piece is the assumption that all GOP governors/election officials will gladly let a new candidate be on the ballot. When Ohio was giving ire and “will they won’t they” to a sitting US President on a technicality, I see no reason to assume GA, FL, TX, and others won’t follow

One point @leedrutman.bsky.social does not address is that Harris is the only potential alternative to Biden who could use the campaign funds already raised, since she's on the ticket. Anyone else needs to build their own campaign. So de facto there are only two candidates: Harris or Biden.

Post