Public Sector Lawyer

@publicsectorlawyer.bsky.social

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25 years lawyering, in Government Departments & independent public bodies in the UK. Statutory interpretation, constitutional, regulatory & criminal law.

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Recommended, very topical reading on the paradoxical impotence of centralisation. Notes on the suggested solutions in the other place. x.com/inkspringed/...

Here’s what you could’ve won.

Just noticed this bit of Boris Johnson’s speech yesterday, so interesting to compare the approval ratings for him on the cusp of his victory in 2019 with Starmer’s now.

The fundamentals underpinning the coming defeat were set during Boris Johnson’s premiership. Not that such facts are likely to sway many in the Conservative Party. on.ft.com/3L5LnYZ

Comedy mustache plus stirring music - I’m going with the Go Compare guy, but still not sure why I’m supposed to be scared about ending zero hours contracts.

Another indicator of the point that’s eluded much of the media till recently: how historically unpopular the Tories are & the electoral consequences. Striking similarity here often of the ‘% satisfied’ figure & the party’s final share at the GE. And this PM’s rating = that of the latest polls.

Excellent as usual, but not sure about this one detail. Was this really a tactical move in 2016, given the party was against it back then? I get the feeling he really believed it. (Which, if true, makes you wonder why, given his background.) bsky.app/profile/robe...

In which I attempt to answer the Great Question Of The Election: how is Rishi Sunak so bad at this? thecritic.co.uk/the-rise-and...

The rise and fall of Rishi | Robert Hutton | The Critic Magazinethecritic.co.uk How is Rishi Sunak so bad at this? Having posed the question some months ago, it’s time to have a crack at answering it. The election campaign has left little dispute about his lack of political nous…

Interesting point in y’day’s briefing: not only the mortality issue, but generally. 2019 was a freakish election, many voting Cons (& many for the 1st time) because of Brexit or Corbyn. If currently DK, why assume many would *now* vote Cons, than eg not vote at all? bsky.app/profile/samf...

New election briefing just out: @beyondthetopline.bsky.social looks at the different ways pollsters are handling "don't knows" - it's the difference between 1997 result + wipeout. Plus seat previews for Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire + Derbyshire. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/which-poll...

Which pollsters have got it right?samf.substack.com Plus 29 seat previews covering Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire

A number of ‘red wall’ seats here look likely to flip, & so perhaps unsurprisingly quite a few on the right of the Conservative Party, eg Gullis, Kawczynski, Longhi predicted out, which may be significant for its future. bsky.app/profile/samf...

New election briefing just out: A huge batch of seat previews today - 42 covering most of the West Midlands (bar Birmingham and Coventry). Lots of different types of seats + an array of some of the worst MPs around about to lose theirs. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/west-midla...

West Midlands: the seat previewssamf.substack.com 42 of them today...

Slightly amused (with my job & interests) to find I’m in the ‘Apolitical’ category. But feels right that the old left-right voting coalitions have broken down irretrievably. Making it difficult eg for the Conservatives to ‘unite the right’. bsky.app/profile/samf...

New post just out: It's by the god of election analysis himself Sir John Curtice, with colleague Lovisa Moller Vallgarda. They've built a system for classifying voters that offers fascinating insights into this election and the future of UK politics. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...

Mapping Voter Coalitionsopen.substack.com A guest post from Sir John Curtice and Lovisa Moller Vallgarda

One aspect about this: difficult to tell what a party’s true level of support is if there’s massive tactical voting. EG many Labour supporters may be voting LibDem to keep the Cons out. So whether Labour gets eg 39 or 43% vote share doesn’t necessarily show how popular it is. on.ft.com/4eKtFIe

Brace for the most distorted election result in British historyon.ft.com The demolition of parties to the right will raise fresh doubts about first past the post

Really interesting on the Falklands. Presumably any ‘negotiated’ end to Ukraine would run into the significant difficulty that Putin has shown he’s happy renege on deals he doesn’t like, which is in part why the war started in the first place. bsky.app/profile/ldfr...

Latest post addresses the claim that all wars end with a negotiation by looking at the 1982 Falklands War, which didn’t. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

open.substack.com

Analysis here supports a hunch that most recent moves on polls, including a slight dip for Labour, reflects tactical voting intentions, suggesting Conservative prospects at the lower end of estimates. What happens when a Government is this unpopular. bsky.app/profile/samf...

New election briefing out First @dylandifford.bsky.social looks at the detail of the many polls being published to explain, more clearly than I've seen elsewhere, exactly what they're saying. Then 26 seat previews covering Cambridgeshire + Essex. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-story-...

The story of the polls so farsamf.substack.com Plus seat previews for Cambridgeshire and Essex

In retrospect, foolish of me to have excluded the possibility they might have been betting on their own annihilation. bsky.app/profile/publ...

So many of these now, & coming so fast, can they really be accidental? A double agent, or someone bored & having fun, or a subconscious death wish, or what?

The betting scandal another symptom of ‘Long Johnson’, familiar since partygate: politics as a game; you may as well join in & cash in like everyone else; rules are for others; those at the top will turn a blind eye; what matters is only how things look.

If there turn out to have been bets from within the Conservative campaign on the *outcome* of the GE, that would at least make a lot of sense as far as the output is concerned.

Wild punt becomes safe bet. bsky.app/profile/publ...

So I’d say at the moment the chances of the Conservatives getting under 100 seats is higher than the chances of Labour getting a majority of under 100. Or am I going too far? Where would you put your money?

Another example of the extraordinary difficulty political leaders seem to have in getting decent advisers. Cc @roberthhutton.bsky.social .

Bim Afolami on R4 referring to ‘Conservative voters’ who may be tempted to vote Reform. One of the reasons why so many people have underestimated the scale of defeat that’s coming.

What about the *really* difficult choice for Rachel Reeves: what face will she go with for the all-important ‘it’s so much worse than we thought’ photo? Option 1: disappointment, grim determination.

Seems a bit odd to me, given the known risks of untrustworthiness, that the Conservatives have chosen a flying pig as the centerpiece of today’s ad for the £2000 claim.

Here’s the justification for the CS providing costings for the £2k tax figure. I don’t think the justification really works when it’s clear officials are being asked to attack Opposition election proposals, & spads are obviously loading assumptions & questions.

Anyone (@roberthutton.bsky.social?) able to provide the technical definitions of, & distinctions between, ‘wipeout’, ‘extinction-level event’, ‘pasting’, & ‘battering’?

roberthuttonbsky.social

Fascinating. Including this on the key ‘Cons to Don’t Knows’, whom many seem to assume will either drift back automatically, or will do so if the party shifts further right. bsky.app/profile/samf...

New election briefing out A brief bit from me on the Electoral Calculus MRP And a blockbuster piece from the brilliant Dylan Difford on how voters have shifted between 2019 and now. A level of analysis I'm not sure all the campaigns even have.... (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/going-with...

Comment is Freed | Sam Freedman | Substacksamf.substack.com Politics, policy analysis, and foreign affairs from Sam and Lawrence Freedman. Click to read Comment is Freed, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Not sure they were on exactly ‘the same page’. His client described himself after the trial as ‘a very innocent man’. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Another v helpful post. Could the big polling story of this GE be the ‘don’t knows’ (see latest JLP vs YouGov)? What are the methodologies? EG do assumptions re returning voters factor the unusual nature of the 2019 GE, Govt approval ratings, likelihood of non-voting? bsky.app/profile/samf...

New post just out With all the noise of the campaign, and all the data flying around, what are the five signals to look out for that will tell us how bad things are going to get for the Conservatives? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

How to follow the electionopen.substack.com The five signals to watch amidst the noise

So many of these now, & coming so fast, can they really be accidental? A double agent, or someone bored & having fun, or a subconscious death wish, or what?

Particularly like in this clip the robotic insistence, twice, that he’s simply determined to stick to the plan. Full steam ahead, Captain Smith! www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/news-op...

Captaining a sinking ship - The Prime Minister's shambolic visit to NIwww.belfastlive.co.uk From press being sent to the wrong location to confusion around when interviews would take place, the writers of The Thick of It would have had plenty of material to work with

What will be the final cost on this, for delivering precisely nothing? About half a billion? www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Rwanda flights won't take off before July 4 election, admits Rishi Sunakwww.standard.co.uk The Prime Minister said there would be no pre-election Rwanda flights despite his vow to ‘stop the boats’