Near the end of the article are executives salivating over the idea that because of AI people will upgrade their computers every two years and their phones every year, just like the good ol' days.
Meanwhile I still use a laptop from 2014 and I buy my phones based on how many years of support I get.
“Remember that generative AI is not once and done…You’re going to continue to push compute, and build models that are larger, and so you will have to continue to upgrade devices in order to keep up with the pace of generative AI.” 😩 www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
If you want to know why the tech sector seems to have lost its entire fucking mind in the last decade, the main factor for home user tech is commoditization.
People regard their smartphones the way they do their televisions or their microwaves: they're all more or less fast enough, so why upgrade?
Some people want the high end shit every year or so, true.
But most of us already balk at the idea of paying $1k for a cell phone, and the longer we can keep this singular expensive purchase functioning and viable the better.
There is no good compelling reason to upgrade so frequently anymore.
In the early smartphone era, the tech was advancing in leaps and bounds with every new release: better screens, better cameras, much faster, much improved battery life, etc.
That's all more or less plateaued now. Most people are fine with the "good enough" option because "good enough" is great.
Even compared to something like an iPhone 5, the cheapest Android phone today works like lightning, and the cameras are pretty stellar.
That's less than $200.
And that's what's causing the tech freakout: we have no *need* to upgrade. We *want* upgrades, sure, but there's no outright necessity.
When "good enough" wins the day, then that product sector slows down.
It's what made TV manufacturers lose their entire minds with 3D, because after the rush to upgrade to HD people were done. 4K moved the needle again, but now that upgrade cycle is largely over and done as well.
"AI" is the savior, because people will *need* AI so they'll *need* the best devices, right?
Well, no. People *want* "AI" in that it's a neat toy to screw around with, but it's useless for real work and doesn't provide much utility that isn't more easily obtained with other software.
I work in retail electronics, and one thing we're absolutely not supposed to say is how little TV's actually change year-to-year. They slap new words on things all the time to make it seem new.
I remember seeing a thing a few years ago: "People who buy Android phones only do it to make a statement." It pissed me off for a minute, and then I realized that, yes, I AM making a statement: fuck you if you think I'm paying $1000 for a phone.
I worked with a team developing an app for (NDA). Our lead customer kept saying "no need for Android, all our people have iPhones."
One day in a meeting, the client contact saw my phone and asked which iPhone it was; I said it was a $200 Nokia. Next meeting, it was "How's that Android app coming?"
The same is true of apps. We're saturated, there's nothing left to sell us. That's why AI is being pushed so hard on that end, because they long ago ran out of things to sell us.
There is one type of app that no one, as far as I know, has successfully made yet: a personal assistant that does things accurately and well, and does NOT hand the user's information over to anyone else.
That's always an issue when a technology is kinda "solved"
We see this a lot with hygene products. There's only so much you can do with a toothbrush or razor blades.
"We put a small motor into the tooth brush so that it will vibrate. We will tell customers this generates sonic pulses."
Pretty much. The only thing I ask of my cell phone is that it have enough storage space in it that I can put the music I own on it, because I don't want to friggin' stream everything.
“Hm. Looks like my phone is pretending that the battery is running out faster, now. It’s internal clock must have have realized I’ve owned it for a year, now.”
I know that battery meters on mobile phones are bullshitting us because I’ve seen my battery life be at 39% and then jump back up to 41% the next time I opened the phone. No charging in the mean time. I guess static electricity must have given me 2% more power.
I update my computer every 2-3 years, but I play a shitload of video games so I kinda have to. If I didn't... well its mostly social media and writing so I could probably pull that off on a far older rig if I didn't mind it chugging a bit.
I bought a Samsung A51 back in 2020 for about £300 and it's still absolutely fine now.
Not as big a stretch as your example, but I'd always been hesitant to get a smart phone because of the upgrade problem.
My phone hasn't missed a beat in 4 years. I see no reason to upgrade.
