I think it is really important to acknowledge that the situation right now is much more uncertain than it’s ever been
swapping out a candidate at this stage has never been done
we are flying completely blind and even our guesses are less informed than ever, which comes with high downside risk
Big hat tip to @jbouie.bsky.social for treating uncertainties as uncertain, with both downside and upside potential, rather than what many pundits are doing: imagine a positive scenario and act as if things will smoothly go that way if only people try it.
Doesn't seem like a high bar. And yet...
I refuse to believe that actual adults are seriously arguing that swapping out candidates 4 months before an election isn't the equivalent of buying an ad in every constituency that says "we have no idea what the fuck we're doing "
the sole reason why Bret Stephens isnt a thing on the right is because his whole brand of concern trolling is completely useless when presented to ppl who are like "so fucking what" every time someone passive aggressively clears their throat at them but work great on those obsessed with happy vibes
ideologically Bret is closer to the GOP than the Dems. Functionally his work is more for the GOP than Dems. But the one thing republicans do have when it comes to media is an understanding of who gets to talk and who listens in the current climate and Dems give him an importance he gets nowhere else
there’s this desperate need for a Reasonable Republican, a Principled Opposition with which we can disagree in good faith
Trump is so crass that he broke the illusion, so the Never Trumpers like Bret were elevated even though they aren’t that either because it doesn’t exist
I don't know that they necessarily don't exist at all, but I don't think there's a single one at national level Republican politics. And the ones that exist at state/local levels are both vanishingly rare and enable the Unreasonable Republicans, so they're still part of the problem.
This: It's not that the people don't exist, but it's structurally impossible for them to wield any influence, especially now, so they can't be found.
I miss the days when I still believed they could be found, but that was well and truly dead for me by 2008.
They haven't existed for nearly 50 years. Look at Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America. Look at the origins of Fox News, as a right wing counterbalance to Watergate coverage. Look at what Goldwater said about embracing Evangelicals.
Right, but my point is that I used to believe it, and even if it was inaccurate then, I miss thinking that it might be possible. (Also, I was still in college back then.) I'm not going to pretend just because I wish it were true, on this.
There’s a weekly segment on The PBS NewsHour in which David Brooks has a permanent seat as the token Republican (opposite Jonathan Capeheart) and there’s absolutely no reason for it but DC-brained media and US bothsidesism
the sensible thing would be to treat the left like the principled opposition they have to compromise with, and treat the republicans like their political enemies that they need to defeat
