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Reminder: I still think Biden has a chance to prevail against this reckless press, if he doesn’t have a very bad stumble or senior moment in next few weeks. The only point of my Kamala scenario is to discuss what should happen if things go farther south. In our situation, to not contemplate …
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He's going to have another such moment, and there is no longer an electoral cushion. This isn't Reagan running 18 points ahead in 1984.
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Yeah, as I just posted elsewhere, all these national polls showing a minor dip are providing a false sense of optimism. The only polls that matter are the beige ones. And most ain’t lookin’ great in the cross-tabs. www.270towin.com
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The obsession of the Democratic faithful with the popular vote is a continuing weakness.
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Morning Consult post-debate poll has Biden up in both Michigan and Wisconsin. I suppose I'm having a hard time seeing why we should give up any incumbency advantage (a real thing) for a shot in the dark when it all seems still a crapshoot against an unpopular opponent.
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Morning Consult is a blue-friendly pollster with a very sketchy track record (despite one big win), and never give links to their cross tabs. So you don’t actually know why you should think theirs is any more accurate than others showing no such bump, and many showing declines. Also, the most …
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And winning those two states doesn’t offset all the other toss-ups (beige) we are hardly strong in.