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The crazy thing is Russia really should have been able to pull this off and just continues to fail at it. And even if they did they have a long insurgency to look forward to.
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I don't know about "should have", I think in a hypothetical world where their military wasn't a giant mess behind the scenes it could have worked but they had to learn that lesson in the early days of the war
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I guess it makes sense that in a personal dictatorship the last thing you want is a particularly effective military