i'm getting so, so tired of the doomerism on here, and the press loves covering shit like a horse race instead of explaining fundamentals and what's at play, a job that seems to fall to @golikehellmachine.com on here.
so here's a thread about why i'd rather be biden — yes, biden — right now
2/
the baseline for this election is 2020. normally "the last election" might not be a perfect baseline, but it's the same guys with the roles reversed. both are quasi-incumbents, and we have a four year record for the both of them, with some recency bias for biden.
here's that map
3/ now, for trump to win, he has to do three things:
1) hold nc
2) flip georgia and arizona
3) make headway in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania
for biden to win, he has to hold wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania.
DNC, I know it's your white whale, but fuck turning Texas blue. I appreciate you have not abandoned us like so many people on here would have you do, but for the sake of this election please pour every resource into holding onto the states mentioned here for dear life.
The Biden campaign has field offices in almost every county in Wisconsin, and has publicly targeted only North Carolina for expanding their 2020 map. Texas is a landslide flip they aren't focusing on from what I can tell.
I get E-mails from them constantly but I suppose that is minimal effort that is not costing them much. And I appreciate that we've not been abandoned but in the next four months I am much more worried about them holding the Presidency, so I am okay if we get minimal visits.
Oh yeah, if Biden is hosting a rally in Houston it's because either their internal polling is showing that it's time to hit the jets or things are so desperate they hope for a hail mary. I do not think it will be the later.
