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This is interesting. Left-wing parties win a majority of the vote (Labour + LibDem + Green) but if Reform UK didn't exist, Jacob Rees-Mogg would have won under First Past the Post. Just as Tories won because of the spoiler effect... the spoiler effect now works in both directions.
This election is a lot like Canada 1993. If Reform UK rejoins the Conservatives, just like Reform rejoined the Conservatives in Canada (see the parallel?!) Conservatives will win the next election, barring election reform. Just like in Canada.
Except Chretien is significantly more liberal than Starmer. That is the biggest difference.