Tom Clark

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Tom Clark

@tom-clark.bsky.social

Contributing Editor at Prospect Magazine
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One paradox of the results: the leading lights of making Labour “electable” enough for this stunning win have all personally won the backing of many fewer electors than last time www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/ele...
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I think this is going to be a moderately bad election for the polling industry which will be forgotten because it's essentially a blowout
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Trying to back out vote shares from the exit poll, starting from Survation seat estimates, and I think it's something like Lab 37.5, Con 25.8
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Yes, the 99% figure is from "inside" the model. If you believe the model is correct, your probability should be 99%. If you believe the model is incorrect for (reasons), then it's not 99%. The value of providing comparisons with, e.g., other elections is that it's not model dependent in the same way
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I wrote a blog post about why I felt confident saying that Labour will win more seats than they did in 1997 www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/why_wa...
chris hanretty - Why wait for Survation?www.chrishanretty.co.uk chris hanretty’s site
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"A marauding giant of Want runs across the entire terrain. The biggest question for our generation, as for William Beveridge and the generation that came through the war, is once again how to summon the political will in order to slay it."
NEW COL Why isn't falling inflation easing hardship? “Cost of living crisis” was always a misnomer: the real problem is chronic stagnation of low incomes As to hopes of a solution, a huge amount now turns on just one sentence in Labour’s manifesto www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/busine...
The cost-of-living conundrumwww.prospectmagazine.co.uk Why falling inflation isn’t ending the crisis
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NEW COL Why isn't falling inflation easing hardship? “Cost of living crisis” was always a misnomer: the real problem is chronic stagnation of low incomes As to hopes of a solution, a huge amount now turns on just one sentence in Labour’s manifesto www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/busine...
The cost-of-living conundrumwww.prospectmagazine.co.uk Why falling inflation isn’t ending the crisis
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My pamphlet with Gordon Brown on a new partnership to end poverty is out today gordonandsarahbrown.com/wp-content/u... + my new Prospect piece on how to deploy charity without getting “hooked” — but instead to buy time for restoring decent social security www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/society/pove....
gordonandsarahbrown.com
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ICYMI: Why raising taxes substantially is critical for the next Labour government to be sure of achieving its missions mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/why-... In five years time few will remember a tax commitment broken, but a failure restore the NHS and other services will not be forgiven.
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Yes, the street sleeping & hunger of 2020s Britain is “Dickensian”. But so too is the hopeless response of the rich — new column www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/society/pove...
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As the official poverty tally soars, I wrote for the Guardian about how efforts to fix health, education & the economy could be doomed unless politicians grip this crisis www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
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Nice bot built by my friend @adriantoll.bsky.social producing diary entries of John Clare...
1824: A coppled crownd Crane shot at Billings's pond in the Green - Twas 4 foot high from the toes to the bill on the breast & rump was a thick shaggy down full of powder which seem to be a sort of pounce-box to the bird to dress its feathers with to keep out the wet its neck & breast were...
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Britain’s in a funk. And everyone across the political spectrum, writes @tom-clark.bsky.social, should see it needs fixing: www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/econom...
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Having held the pen thro much of the process, I’m not the right person to review today’s Ending Stagnation report But as I step back from the techy recommendations I’m interested in the politics of making them happen In particular: is Labour serious? www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/econom...
Ending stagnation: Is Labour up to the task?www.prospectmagazine.co.uk Measuring the opposition’s platform against a major new report suggests the party is at least heading in the right direction when it comes to growth, but has much further to go when it comes to a de...
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South America's third most populous country will be governed by someone who cosplays as Captain Ancap, has a mastiff named after Rothbard and uses the gold and black of anarcho-capitalism for his party colors. Wish the topic of my book wasn't so relevant.
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