Tomas Hirst

@tomashirstecon.bsky.social

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Strategy & asset allocation

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I have lots of thoughts on the subject, but Toby by now has undoubtedly better synthesised and developed them so I would just watch his space

Recall @tomashirstecon.bsky.social had some reasonable explanations for why it's easy to be misled by these headline numbers.

Here’s hoping that the long 2010s may finally be coming to its close in the UK #ElectionDay

Vote early, vote tactical - especially if you happen to be in Bicester and Woodstock

Happy Voting Day! Here’s hoping for a maximally efficient vote share -> seats pattern that more than fully offsets the Tories’ low density rural > high density urban vote skew #nerdtweets

Another *meh* JOLTS report - key message is one of stabilisation. Quits treading water, hiring seems to have found a trough, and layoffs also bouncing around the lows (albeit some potential signs of a modest increase there). Openings are just *shrug*

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Goolsbee was dovish earlier and the Chair is following suit. *POWELL: PRICES NOW SHOW SIGNS OF RESUMING DISINFLATION TREND *POWELL: LAST INFLATION READING SUGGESTS DISINFLATION PATH but... *POWELL: WANT TO SEE MORE DATA LIKE WE'VE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY

Happy JOLTS Day!

Happy Father’s Day to all the FinTwit dads

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First portrait of King since coronation unveiled

First portrait of King since coronation unveiledwww.bbc.co.uk Queen Camilla is said to have looked at the painting and told the artist: "Yes, you've got him."

Quick thread on where the debate around US growth/rates might want to focus from here threadreaderapp.com/thread/17798...

Not a wildly novel insight but very well put (from this paper arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/pa...)

So I really didn’t get on with the 3 Body Problem. Haven’t read the books so wasn’t prepped. Not a huge fan of dystopian sci-fi, but this one felt particularly thin. Whole thing could have been basically done in an episode. Narrative also felt like stuff half remembered from school science classes.

Well, this is incredibly flattering. Had missed this very kind (and thought-provoking) response from Brad Delong to my musings on what happened to the centrist right/wets braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-no...

So, I am now an uncle for the first time. In case it wasn’t already abundantly obvious to me, this confirms I am officially old.

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Because I am extremely cool, here is a quick thread about how UK economic growth was so slow in the aftermath of the industrial revolution... The start of the industrial revolution is often dated to around 1760 (based on technological breakthroughs). And yet per capita growth slowed down after 1760

US labor market summary this week: Jan was overselling how hot the labor market is (*shocked face*) but it's mostly churn that's cooling rather than levels of employment. Low layoffs, low hiring consistent implied by JOLTS confirmed in the claims data - but AWP ~pre-Covid trend

As a former resident of Geneva, this is extremely funny to me - good luck guys! Don’t let the door hit you on the way out

“Nobody expected this from the Tories. We’re going to leave London and move to Switzerland.” on.ft.com/48NtvLZ

Rich non-doms ‘dismayed’ by Hunt’s decision to end tax breakson.ft.com [FREE TO READ] Chancellor warned that abolition of the regime will lead to well-heeled foreigners leaving the UK

I *think* the argument Mordaunt is trying to make here is that Donelan could have ripped taxpayers off by £16k for two days work but instead is akshully good because she only ripped the taxpayer off by £15k to settle a libel claim www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-poli...

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JPY on a mission, after Japanese wage demand comments prompt increasing likelihood of BoJ rate action at the upcoming March 19th meeting: *JAPAN'S RENGO: WAGE DEMANDS THIS YEAR AT 5.85% VS 4.49% IN 2023

For those travelling through Boston: best restaurants in town are very clearly Oleana, Cicada, Field & Vine and Pammy’s - with honourable mentions for Kava, Sarma, Fox & The Knife and Comfort Kitchen

Other than a fun conceit, Beef is…not really all that well done IMO. Meandering, implausible narrative that barely holds itself together on its own terms.

Couple of questions hivemind: anyone read the Barclays piece on adjusting HY spreads for early calls as issuers won’t want bonds to become current? If so, thoughts on how to read it?

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NYC, I am in thee

More reports today that private credit funds are having to cut pricing to compete for deals - mark your forward ERs commensurately *it’s happening gif*

Porting my thread on the Lifecycle of an illiquid asset class: 1) Find a niche poorly served by existing financial channels 2) Build offering to exploit the niche offering early investors above comparable market return with smoother performance 3) Deliver superior returns; expand scale of offering

Welcome newbies! Just FYI @peark.es is the lord of these lands

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A preview from @stephenkb.bsky.social of @dsquareddigest.bsky.social 's new book, which will be excellent. The "landing cards" issue is a distraction re Windrush, albeit one that Theresa May purports not to understand. Then, the people who came from the Empire did so as legal subjects of the Crown.

Why accountability is an increasingly elusive endeavourwww.ft.com In the age of algorithmic decision-making, allocating blame is a fraught process — but this doesn’t have to be a bad thing