George Pearkes

@peark.es

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Macro Strategist | Econ, macro, home cooking, & the occasional cocktail | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto | American via Canada, not Scottish.

*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG

📍 CLT NC

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George Pearkes

"We've been planning this for a week on Twitter" is both the most ridiculous and most cursed justification for a major national political strategy I've ever seen.

Again, I am forced to concede there is a serious problem of cooked brains this election

EIA data on planned additional capacity over the next year (through April, data was released late June): renewables are the only source of generation increases in the US. Long way to go but gathering real steam.

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George Pearkes

Wind now generates more electricity than coal in the US

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George Pearkes

Reply to

skelly

why yes they did

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George Pearkes

Reply to

post malone ergo propter malone

Didn’t they just pass a huge bill for Parkinson’s research funding

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George Pearkes

What this article leaves out is that if you hand your unlocked phone to a police officer, they can legally search it. Unless companies develop a method that allows you to show officers insurance cards and driver license without unlocking the rest of your phone, don't. www.zdnet.com/article/digi...

This state is introducing digital driver's licenses. Here's what you need to knowwww.zdnet.com Your physical wallet is being replaced piece by piece. Here's what you need to know about using digital IDs.

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George Pearkes

Well, well, well. WELL. That whole “protests made cops feel bad so they all quit” narrative? Looks like it was mostly myth. Excited to read this paper by Ben Grunwald, who compiled a huge dataset on post-2020 police employment. Agg decline was 1%… and bigger local declines not tied to protests.

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George Pearkes

“The Hawk Tuah thing has been taking up space on the emergency frequency we monitor all the time. Usually it’s people meowing on the frequency.” -my brother, an airline captain

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George Pearkes

the Claudine Gay "plagiarism scandal" was such a vivid illustration of this, the paper deciding to do constant, full court press coverage of a story that had tenuous actual news value.

In this chat, we suggest a distinction between covering something (NYT does great reporting on Trump's autocratic plans), and *crusading.* The latter is wholly different: It uses saturation coverage to alert readers that they should be alarmed. That's just not happening w/r/t Trump's unfitness.

Consumers no longer expect elevated inflation as prices have cooled back to a normal pace of increase. *US 1-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FELL TO 3% IN JUNE FROM 3.2% *US 3-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ROSE TO 2.9% IN JUNE AFTER 2.8% *US 5-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FELL TO 2.8% IN JUNE AFTER 3%

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George Pearkes

If it seems like the Supreme Court waits until the end of the term to release unpopular opinions ... It's not your imagination. abcnews.go.com/538/supreme-...

Good news! July is starting out a lot cooler than June globally. Bad news! It's still a lot warmer than typical, just less so than the past year of very high temperatures. Tons of detail in this thread.

Global temperatures have finally started falling over the past few weeks, with the first week of July only 1.35C above preindustrial levels. Weather models expect a continued decline over the next seven days.

My friend Pete Canning, known on the old site as Nonrelated Sense, passed 5 years ago today. I wish I could have shared a cocktail with him after boating this weekend. His sudden loss was gutting and his memory is a blessing.

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George Pearkes

The $243.6mm fine is chump change at this point for Boeing. And there's almost no chance the US Gov't is going to wholly exclude the company from defense contracts. Maybe this is better than a trial, and the best the government can get. But it hardly seems like enough. #AvGeek

Boeing accepts a plea deal to avoid a criminal trial over 737 Max crashes, Justice Department saysapnews.com The Justice Department says Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge stemming from two deadly crashes of 737 Max jetliners.

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George Pearkes

€ now flat on the day vs. $ and £; Bunds and OATS -0.1%, CAC 40 +0.8% in-line with Stoxx 50. literally nothing to see here at all re mkt reaction to the French election result.

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George Pearkes

see this is the kind of thing I'm talking about with packaging the French election for US voters. it's just wrong---blocking of the right came through only because the Neoliberal party and the Left joined forces, not because the Left coalition defeated the Neoliberal bloc

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George Pearkes

Dem outreach to DSA swing state chapters: *youth pastor voice* "You know who else needed help from his wife to run day to day operations?"

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George Pearkes

Reply to

Nathaniel Rakich

And by the time I posted this, his spreadsheet is up to 443/577 seats called: NFP: 137 RN: 123 Macronist: 120 LR (center-right): 34 Others on the right: 15 Others on the left: 8 Misc. others: 6

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George Pearkes

@taniel.bsky.social's spreadsheet has 416/577 seats decided. NFP (left): 124 RN (far right): 122 Macronist: 109 But of the uncalled seats, he judges 49 are "likely NFP," 33 are likely Macronist, and only 16 are likely RN. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

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George Pearkes

It held

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George Pearkes

Reply to

Taniel

OH, a big result: Marine Le Pen's *sister* has LOST her bid to join Parliament. She led 40% to 26% in Round 1. Her left opponent won by 0.5%. (Macronist, who came in 3rd, initially said she wouldn't drop out but then changed her mind. Ended up blocking Le Pen.)

The mad lad did it

*MACRON'S GROUP PROJECTED TO WIN MORE SEATS THAN FAR RIGHT *LEFT ALLIANCE SET FOR 170-215 SEATS IN FRENCH VOTE: ESTIMATES *LE PEN'S GROUP SET FOR 110-158 SEATS IN FRENCH VOTE: ESTIMATES *FRENCH LEFT SET FOR SHOCK ELECTION VICTORY, PROJECTIONS SHOW

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George Pearkes

Reply to

Taniel

Belgian media is now reporting the same thing. 2 other polling institutes are independently projecting the same thing: a much weaker RN than expected, and Left bloc potentially in first place.

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George Pearkes

Info I hear from France suggests results may be very surprising. I had to double check I was reading right. Now appears to be confirmed by *EARLY EXITS* in Swiss media: RN weaker than expected. Fight for first between left & Macronists, though RN possible still in right for low plurality.

It’s remarkable how much more clear-eyed and unspun the financial press is right now when compared to politics-first outlets. This is almost the entirety of Bloomberg’s latest write-up, which does its best to present straightforward facts and specific uncertainties rather than filling in blanks.

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George Pearkes

And speaking of Baltimore, I'm sure my followers are waiting on pins and needles for my latest update on our astonishing fall in homicides. The wait is over! 😏

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George Pearkes

Reply to

Michael Tae Sweeney

i think there's a lot to criticize about Dem message discipline but the rules at the NYT changed kind of dramatically and suddenly to "a single on-background quote from basically any Dem is enough to peg an entire new story about Biden's age to" and idk how you control that basically

Speaking of, democrats would do a lot better to go vent their anxieties to god than to journalists