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There’s a lot that’s happened recently. 1) US CPI was weaker than expected 2) MoF then intervened to push JPY lower 3) Massive reversal in relative performance of Smalls vs. Large 4) The above but really it’s AI/ GLP-1 stuff vs everything else 5) Commodity unwind continues 6) JPY short squeeze

Things I’m thinking about: - Are the c. 150bps of cuts priced in the US (4 next year) too much? I think yes but would rather fade at better levels - If so, weaker USD has run its course. I think we could see EZ and AUS data come in dovish soon

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I’ve been going on about this for a while, but finally wrote up something about how a hypothetical GOP administration might actually end up (happily) with a weaker $. open.substack.com/pub/sankaran...

Trump, Vance, and the Dollaropen.substack.com As you may know, I've written and posted a few things in the past about the $'s position in the international monetary and financial system (IMFS) and about the idea that $ centrality in the IMF is an...

Oh boy. Hes at it again. youtu.be/ScaBfSUJo5U?...

Neil Woodford: Data proves UK economy is much better than you thinkyoutu.be At Spear's 500 Live, private client professionals — from wealth management, philanthropy, luxury, law and property — gathered at The Savoy to share insight, ...

Lads, it’s what we’ve all been waiting for.. only a month and a bit to go

Bit of a boring market ex metals right? RoW equities look better than US though

Does trump repeal IRA? If so, is it a part repeal? Which parts? States which benefit from IRA seem to be red, consensus seems to think it won’t matter. I have no idea

😂😂😂😂

Doomberg really went on RV and said WTI should be trading at $60, because that would make it equivalent to international nat gas prices. So the 20$ spread is geopolitical risk 😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣

Just wanted to put some thoughts out: - recent increase in inflation has been interesting in that it hasn’t been driven by the areas most of said. No evidence of loose FCIs in the data, shipping costs haven’t really flown through noticeably, yes gasoline has risen.

Wow Rana -actually quoted Luke Gorman in the FT. This is the state of things

Having to write on geopolitics is the worst bit about covering oil

Gilts starting to look good again?

There’s a big effort to hold USDJPY below 152, at a time when positioning seems to be quite one sided with a lot of JPY shorts. Higher oil prices don’t help, but what does help is that yield diffs point to a much stronger JPY, although USD seems to be trading on yields diffs less and less recently

Slok is so annoying. He literally posted a chart of historic returns deviating. Then says investors needs to do their homework on mag-7??? youtu.be/8iCNpKzHLAE?...

Any thoughts on why Bostic has gone from a relative do dove to hawk? Is it to do with conditions in his own district? @peark.es

Nice dovish BoE today - took profits on gilts after getting back in just under 4,2%

This is the funniest shit ever

@katie0martin.bsky.social nice pod on esg!

U.K. curve moving up across the board while bear steepening

Cem is great on vol, but I couldn’t care less about his inflation views lol

Slok’s note is incoherent. Since when did the economy respond 1m later after easy fin cons?

@peark.es where in the employment report can I find those who were part time or unable to work due to bad weather? I know the numbers I’m looking for, but don’t know where to look

2021 was such an instructive experience for me because of the sheer amount of greed in the market at the time Not saying this was the same but defo was similar vibes

Objectively hot cpi - as per broadening of components rising by more than 0.4% mom

China is great at creating oversupply and deflation in almost any market it sets its mind on

@robinwigglesworth.bsky.social and co, have you guys written anything on Ryanair and the premium of the ADR versus domestic listing?

VCs are doing dumb shit again

I fucked up a bit at the start of this year. My highest conviction view was growth was too strong to warrant 6 cuts or so in the US. In the U.K. it was early cuts should be faded as real income rise preventing rapid labour market cooling

Oh ffs