For the record: I do not agree w/recent prognostications and headlines claiming that Fire Season 2024 will likely be a quiet/below average one in Western U.S. It may start slowly/be "below avg" initially, but I strongly expect rapid shift to above-average activity by Aug-Sep.
Why? The past two years have been relatively wet (and not record warm) across most of West, with good mountain snowpack in many areas. That has resulted in low fire activity and lots of extra grass/brush growth. That adds "fuel to the fire" (more in some ecosystems than others).
But this summer, we are likely transitioning toward a period of much hotter and drier than average conditions (at least away from immediate Pacific Coast). Most of the interior West is potentially on track for an exceptionally hot/dry summer, and perhaps autumn as well.
So, to summarize, a slow start is likely NOT predictive of what is to come later in the season because of both antecedent conditions (lots of accumulated vegetation growth from two yrs of wetter conditions & low fire activity) and expectation of exceptional heat/dryness to come.
YMMV locally, of course, & there is always an unpredictable component of fire season (where are the human ignitions? Are there dry lightning outbreaks or major autumn offshore wind events?). But predictable component is strongly suggestive of a rapid transition later this year.
