there’s somewhere between 15 and 20% of the likely electorate that is out there up for grabs.
they really deeply dislike Trump and they moderately dislike Biden.
they are probably not going to vote 3rd party but they probably will vote.
With you 2/3 of the way: a negative campaign focusing on how awful Trump is will predictably drive down turnout. It’s a lot easier to get that 15% to not vote at all in disgust than get them to vote against or for something. Which is a disaster for otherwise winnable state house races.
