Ariel Edwards-Levy

@aedwardslevy.bsky.social

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Polling editor at CNN, keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. I like puns.

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once brewed coffee using previously made coffee in the place of water and I'm not going to say I recommend it but at that moment in time it did what it was intended to do

If you need coffee but your brain needs coffee to make coffee the only solution is infinite coffee

And ICYMI, from our poll yesterday: www.cnn.com/2024/07/03/p...

CNN Poll: Most Americans don’t expect Trump to concede if he loses election | CNN Politicswww.cnn.com Most Americans think that former President Donald Trump will not concede if he loses the presidential election in November, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And despite the vast majority...

Top-issue questions are useful, but they don't always capture the full range of how voters draw distinctions between candidates -- which may not be about policy at all. Here, we asked about the most important difference between Biden and Trump: www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/p...

9 out of 10 voters say there are important differences between Biden and Trump. Here’s what they see as the biggest ones | CNN Politicswww.cnn.com If there’s one thing that American voters overwhelmingly agree on, it’s that this year’s presidential election presents a stark choice. In the latest CNN poll by SSRS, 91% of registered voters say the...

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Ariel Edwards-Levy

CNN Poll: Voters favor Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall. (Jennifer Agiesta & @aedwardslevy.bsky.social) www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/p...

i stand by this!

or one that takes the suggestion of @aedwardslevy.bsky.social to add "-ish" to every poll number.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy

Reply to

Ariel Edwards-Levy

[To "Me and Julio Down by the School Yard"] Whoa-oa, in a couple of days they'd opine away But the court let the story leak When the radical word Was posted online by some nerd They was all on the cover of Bloomberg

[extremely singin' in the rain voice] scotus discloses the way the case goeses/but scotus discloses erroneously

who among us has not, perhaps at a dinner party, accidentally issued an opinion

if the other half of AAPOR members aren't getting a version of this email WITHOUT these phrases, I am disappointed in you all

this lacks face validity

finalizing my new LV model

(seeing a hydroelectric power plant for the first time) hot dam

Obligatory sidenote that it sounds like the issues with the survey here are about methodological transparency, sponsorship, questionnaire design and probably representativeness, but that "online polls" covers a huge range of survey work and is not inherently suspect as a category.

Turns out conservative judges, including the ones on the Supreme Court, are basing their decisions on the work of an economist whose "scholarship" on guns is some non-peer-reviewed papers reporting online polls asking gun owners whether guns are awesome.

phone autocorrect tried to get me to write the phrase "farmer's market research" which coincidentally is what I call getting a bunch of little fruit samples

who would like to buy some lovely rutabagas (this is, improbably, a subtweet)

'WAUKEE FLOCK AFLAME

WITCH 1: double double, toil and—how much newt did you say was supposed to be in this arcane elixir again WITCH 2: eh, just eyeball it

"i'm morley safer" "i'm lesley stahl" "and I'm just-about-the-right-amount-of-ley—"

i haven't clicked through yet, but absolutely cackling at the phrase "psephologists' delight"

Psephologists' Delight: As billions of people go to the polls in 2024, political scientists have a lot of data to sift through. (Benjamin Plackett, Nature) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/240612-top...

no longer allowed to find cool data right when I'm intending to leave the office

This is such a great survey question (and yes, this is something ironic about having two binary response categories, but nevertheless)

Not every day you see this little of a partisan gap on something related to both Biden and immigration (reflects, of course, both unusually low Dem support and low GOP opposition) www.monmouth.edu/polling-inst...

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Ariel Edwards-Levy

This is definitely one of those where galaxy brain and dumbass literal brain agree that no one knows, and between them are lots of people who tell you confidently what is going to happen

i can’t read any analysis of this presidential election without concluding that literally no one knows anything about what willhappen in november other than one of two people will be the winner

make a movie milder: Alexander and the Only Fair Day

Make a movie milder: Star Trek II: The Patience of Khan

if a shark is electrocuted does it become shark-cute-rie

introducing a new statistical concept: total survey eh ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

technically the boston tea party is an example of an old bay seasoning

i get two kinds of emails in my spam folder

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Ariel Edwards-Levy

Reply to

Andrew Mercer

But there are more polls being done in different ways than at any time in history, and it’s legitimately difficult to be an informed consumer of polling data these days.

i'm filing late/cause iiiiii'm a stringer