Aidan Moher: The 2023 Hugo nomination statistics are out, and people aren't happy. Astrolabe 36 reports on the controversy, which includes writers like @princejvstin.com and books like R.F. Kuang's "Babel" being mysteriously left off the ballot, opaque communication, and potential counting errors.

The 2023 Hugo nomination statistics are out, and people aren't happy. Astrolabe 36 reports on the controversy, which includes writers like @princejvstin.com and books like R.F. Kuang's "Babel" being mysteriously left off the ballot, opaque communication, and potential counting errors.

Astrolabe 36: Panic! At The Hugosastrolabe.aidanmoher.com Another Hugo Awards controversy, all the seas of the world, and the one that (sorta) got away

This issue also reviews @guygavrielkay.bsky.social's magical novel, "All The Seas Of The World": "A close, personal story about exile and finding your place in the world, about how family is and isn't those with whom you share blood and relatives, and how love comes in many different forms."

Astrolabe 36: Panic! At The Hugosastrolabe.aidanmoher.com Another Hugo Awards controversy, all the seas of the world, and the one that (sorta) got away

And features a long-overdue deep dive into Mother 3. "There's an overwhelming sense of loss and melancholy [and] I dare you not to shed a tear in the closing seconds of the first chapter. Few games that pretend to be 'mature' handle their themes with even a fraction of the maturity of Mother 3."

Astrolabe 36: Panic! At The Hugosastrolabe.aidanmoher.com Another Hugo Awards controversy, all the seas of the world, and the one that (sorta) got away

Thanks, Aidan. Very glad you enjoyed.

It’s a beautiful book! As always, looking forward to whatever you’re working on next.

I'm just a little tired of a lot of people claiming that Seanan MCGuire's nomination stats are hinky. Seanan is very engaged with her fans online and we tend to be very passionate and want her to win things, so lots of us nominate her for them because we like her books and awards mean more books

Please look at the full voting statistics to understand that Seanan's not be singled out here.

I know you are not, but she's been taking a lot of heat because people claim the drop off in category she is nominated in must mean that the stats were manipulated. It's not unlikely that that many people nominated her. It's not unlikely that that many people in one room nominated her.

These two things are true: 1. Seanan is very and well deservedly popular, especially among Hugo voters over the past decade. 2. It's highly unlikely (based on previous nomination datasets) that data patterns such as those seen in the 2023 Best Series category are organic.

Great write-up! Has anyone done a forensic analysis of the numbers? If there are made-up numbers in there, numbers won't appear in the same ratio as they do in real numbers (Benford's Law).

A clever fraudster can reverse engineer fake data to pass this kind of analysis, but your post makes it pretty clear that the Chengdu folks are not clever fraudsters.

My brother Bill is an accounting professor at the Marriott School of Management, and he introduced me to this concept years ago. I've pinged him to see if any of his students want to dig in to the numbers just for funsies.

I'm puzzled why they would share a document like this that is so clearly and obviously a mess. Even the "ineligible" thing could have been obfuscated, pretending Babel or Paul got 100 and 10 votes respectively, instead of just saying "ineligible." It's literally just a spreadsheet

Something happened (or was caused to happen) that made the numbers and decisions a clear mess. Then someone else? released the unexplained mess. Maybe?

I've seen this suggested multiple times, and it would explain some things. In a comment someone called it "work to rule"—ie the deadly labor tactic, when a strike is inadvisable or impossible, of following official procedures, regardless of consequence, as a protest/disruption tactic.

I know @camestrosf.bsky.social has started crunching numbers: camestrosfelapton.wordpress.com/2024/01/21/h...

Hugo 2023 Noms: Mind the Gapcamestrosfelapton.wordpress.com Here (after the fold) is a more accessible table for the Best Novel EPH stats and some free floating discussion of its oddness. Place FinalistN%9876543211 Legends & Lattes83151%202.35203.56206.9206.92...

And @corabuhlert.bsky.social: corabuhlert.com/2024/01/21/t...

The 2023 Hugo nomination statistics have finally been released – and we have questionscorabuhlert.com The long-awaited nomination statistics for the 2023 Hugo Awards have finally been published – at the last possible moment according to the WSFS constitution (and at a point when I really don&…

I've started but there are limits as to what counts as an expected distribution. The data was going to be unusual regardless because fans from China legitimately voting for works from Chinese authors. However, many more oddities than that. Benford's law specifically doesn't really apply here though

I've done a little bit of big-picture number crunching at the link. But some questions require data we don't have. alpennia.com/blog/compari...

The beloved spouse looked at your graphs and said, "That looks like Thumb On Scales to me." Also then said she wanted to see raw numbers and geek about them, oh data scientists.

Alas, we will not get the full raw numbers. So all we can do is visualize datasets that could plausibly result in the reported results.

Thanks—very interesting.

Do you have the digitized numbers you can share? I may be able to use transfers to learn more...

I have a poorly documented Excel file. I could probably upload it to Google Docs so others can use it as a jumping-off point. Need to look into what’s involved. (My inner day-job voice is screaming, “But it hasn’t been independently data-verified! Non-compliant! Non-compliant!”)

Upload away! Compliance is for nerds. (Oh, wait...)

I was hoping you'd turn up :)

Who would have thought that on the same day I’d post two blogs, one about statistics and one about the history of dildos, but it would be the statistics that went viral?

I'm confused by what I'm seeing. I'd love to talk. If you're up for it, email me at firstname lastname on google's big email service.

I've uploaded my working file to Google Docs. But this is a forked version -- if I do further work, it will be in my private copy. drive.google.com/drive/folder...

I've requested access (view access is fine, I plan to fork anyway.)

I had ignored all things Chengdu until a friend brought this up earlier this evening, and I read the File 770 writeup. And my only reaction was, and is: "If you expected anything different from a Chinese Worldcon, that's on you." Transparency and totalitarian hosts don't mix.

Totally fair, but it's still useful to have data, if only to be able to point at it the next time this kind of bid rolls around.

See Heather Rose Jones's analysis also bsky.app/profile/heat...

I've done a little bit of big-picture number crunching at the link. But some questions require data we don't have. alpennia.com/blog/compari...

This is all because worldcon is being held in China, right? Remember when anyone who objected was called a racist?

"Was" not "is." The 2023 Worldcon was in China. 2024 will be in Glasgow. 2025 will be in Seattle. And oboy do I remember being pilloried about the 2023 Site Selection.

It was in China. I know that sounds bad but China is known for censoring an absurd amount of things, so it's not surprising works were left off the ballot for "no reason". The reason is someone in the Communist Party didn't like something. Sucks, but WorldCon wanted to hold their party there

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