Jameson Quinn

Jameson Quinn

@voter.bsky.social

1122

Posts

He/him. Cambridge, MA. en, es, fr
Expertise: stats, voting methods
Interests: US politics, dark matter, sf, democracy, "ai"/ml, Guatemala, cancer, -omics, linguistics, justice, people geeking the fuck out

Posts Replies Media

What would the UK election have looked like with PLACE voting? Assuming same ballots, you'd have:

Where would I find constituency-level vote results for the recent UK election in a nice csv (or spreadsheet)?

Both Biden and Trump had a problem finishing their thoughts with the details they knew should go there. Trump would switch to "immigrants bad, me good". Biden would circle around like me looking for my keys. Biden needs a touchstone.

If you paid attention to Trump's side of the debate, he had the same underlying problem Biden did, where over and over he would start a sentence and realize he couldn't say or remember the words that would come next, but where Biden stalled out, Trump just switched to blurting something unrelated

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Pwnallthethings

What matters isn't who's to blame if things go wrong, it's how to have the best chance of it not going wrong in the first place.

There's no responsible way to precisely model uncertainty (or bias) when we know for a fact that several black swans are in play. Doesn't mean modeling / polling / etc. are useless, but it does mean anyone who's not being humble about how much we know is too arrogant.

The problem is this is just a really hard election to properly model; in some profound ways it's not like any election up to 2016, and has some very important differences to 2016 or 2020 too in lots of important directions. Which isn't great for anxiety. But it does mean it's still all to play for.

IMO Biden campaign should spotlight Harris. Upsides: Reassuring if they don't switch. Gets a head start if they have to switch. (Biden would say "God forbid" here but hard to deny it's possible) Make her newsworthy = free media. Downsides: Keeps freakout alive (but is there anything that doesn't?)

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UNCAP THE HOUSE

For real though it sucks that Britain, a damp rock the size of one of my city's medium sized parks, has a legislature with more representatives than the United States. We deserve better.

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If you are mad at the NYT and don't feel like fucking with the auction today, I also invite you to just go directly to donate.romancingthevote.com which is where all of our auction payments will go, and from there directly on to voting organizations who will make sure those who WANT to vote can.

Chip in!donate.romancingthevote.com Show your support with a contribution.

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Lmao they just changed the title of the piece from “Why I don’t vote” to “Why I won’t vote” rather than tell readers that the guy actually does vote

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This fucking guy voted in the last two elections voteref.com/voters/MI/vi...

How many times does Matthew Walther get to publish his essay about why he doesn't vote in a prominent outlet? Because two seems like too many bsky.app/profile/greg...

Voter Referencevoteref.com VoteRef.com is dedicated to ensuring transparent, accurate and fair elections in the United States of America.

The New York Times has chosen this particular 4th of July — less than a week after 6 unelected judges bindingly ruled that monarchy is great after all — to publish an editorial against voting. My first response is RAGE. But OK, let's do this: here's why they're so so wrong:

Opinion | Why I Don’t Voteweb.archive.org If casting a ballot is merely expressive, then the same is true of not casting one.

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as a politics knower I think the democrats should simply do the thing that makes it easiest to win, but also aligns with both all my prior posts and all my most panicked recent posts. this is very simple and obvious.

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5/5 If Biden decides to withdraw, he should just say something like, "Being president is a full-time job. Campaigning for the presidency is a full-time job. I'm too old to work two jobs, so I'm going to focus on the one I was elected to do. Vote Harris in November!"

Micah may be right. It's not my job to decide and it probably isn't yours. Hard to be patient with all that's at stake but I honestly think that's best for the moment.

I don’t think the concerns are based on nothing either - we all (well, the sickos among us) watched the debate, it’s a real issue my point is that it has become the only issue, and means it can’t be addressed Biden will never be able to convince people at this point, even if he is capable

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We have a romantic Finnish 🇫🇮 lesbian love story for you tonight about Artist and Moomin creator Tove Jansson and her life partner and graphic designer Tuulikki Pietilä.

Agree with all of this but also: 1. Walk and chew gum. Address direct needs while you do the structural stuff. 2. Show good faith before statehood referendum in PR. Repeal Jones act for island states/territories; disappear 90% of the debt; and offer to assume remaining 10% if statehood passes.

really cannot emphasize enough how plainly all this proves that the first priority of the next Democratic administration needs to be democracy reform --filibuster --electoral college --court reform --dc and pr statehood --new voting rights act --gerrymandering

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really cannot emphasize enough how plainly all this proves that the first priority of the next Democratic administration needs to be democracy reform --filibuster --electoral college --court reform --dc and pr statehood --new voting rights act --gerrymandering

I like the swirlies in the reflection.

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lmao

Opponent breaks all norms, you follow all norms: you are a sucker. Opponent breaks all norms, you break all norms: you're arguably just as bad. Opponent breaks all norms, you find ways to respond that are effective but not escalatory:

I think this is the first person on here to point out that Biden could now "legally" order the IRS to release Trump's tax returns. Good point.

I think this is the first person on here to point out that Biden could now "legally" order the IRS to release Trump's tax returns. Good point.

Add "public release of the tax returns of Donald J. Trump, the Trump Organization, all Trump children and their spouses and any other place that Trump money might be hiding" to the list of official acts that Biden might take here.

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I think the IRS needs to be ordered to release the tax returns for various Trump and Kushners, as well as various Supreme Court justices and Trump advisors.

Voting method reform is like #6 on the US "urgent structural reforms" list and like #15 for "urgent reforms, including groups in crisis". But it's the issue where I have some degree of comparative advantage so I'm hereby resolving to actually write up my shit.

Really cannot emphasize enough the emotional benefit of picking a spot where you can have an outsize impact and digging in to really work on it in addition to your other efforts. My contributions to protecting anonymity online have been SUCH a motivator for avoiding despair.

OK, so I guess this is the real Flight 93 election. Now or never, do or die. (And spare me any self-gratifying "but Biden sucks too".) Serious thing to consider: If you can, move to a swing state in time to legally register there. Obviously, most can't. But even a few might swing it. Do or die.

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Still thinking about this. Judge Chutkan and the DC Cir. have one of the few opportunities anyone is going to get to pare back yesterday’s decision. They have to respond in a way that forces SCOTUS to either back down or completely humiliate themselves. What they CANNOT do …

If the lower court understood the present moment, this would be its response: "The court is surprised this needs to be said, but anything related to a coup attempt is not an official act. That includes all of the conduct in the indictment. Trial begins September 1st."

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I was reading an article this morning about how the Swedish Navy is starting to put QR codes on the sides of their ships. This lets them Scandinavian.

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huh, this looks like a serious attempt to create a new browsing engine

Announcing the Ladybird Browser Initiativeladybird.org We've created a US non-profit to develop Ladybird into a truly independent web browser...

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Real principled leftist politicians in France: “I will sacrifice my career so a liberal can get this office instead of a fascist” Leftist edge lords online: “Shut the fuck up libs you’re all fascists anyway”

Democrats in disarray. LOL!

The day after traitors fire on Fort Sumter, all I can think about is: this proves how wrong that other pamphleteer was.

The day after traitors fire on Fort Sumter, all I can think about is: this proves how wrong that other pamphleteer was.