Andrew M Leber

@andrewleber.bsky.social

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Asst. Prof. of political science, Tulane U
MENA politics, some photography, some translation
New Orleans, LA ⚜️

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Coining the term "ghost literature" to describe bodies of work that are taken for granted but don't actually have that much research to support them

I see we're still doing game-theory models with no empirics as "proving" something.

Answered some questions from Kevin Huggard over at Brookings regarding a US-Saudi defense pact. www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...

Making sense of a proposed US-Saudi deal | Brookingswww.brookings.edu Andrew Leber breaks down what a proposed U.S.-Saudi deal could mean for the two countries and the Middle East.

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www.ft.com/content/6005...

Eric Trump says he is pursuing more Gulf deals as his father seeks re-electionwww.ft.com Ambition for family business raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest if ex-president regains office

"This was not the first order given by the division with the intent of foiling kidnapping even at the expense of the lives of the kidnapped, a procedure known in the army as the "Hannibal procedure."" www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

IDF ordered Hannibal directive on October 7 to prevent Hamas taking soldiers captivewww.haaretz.com ***

Wedeen (1999) www.axios.com/2024/07/01/b...

Biden’s salvation planwww.axios.com Biden has zero interest in stepping aside — and First Lady Jill Biden and key family members and friends.

You can still think the best course of action is Biden running, but it's not hysteria to point out that he and his team blew their one shot to demonstrate he isn't in serious cognitive decline.

Either he steps down by Tuesday night or he's in it until November/death.

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ICYMI: my account of how Biden won the Dem nomination & the election in 2020. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111… His electability and public dislike of Trump were big drivers. Both motivations have since ebbed.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Can't say this is reassuring... www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Experts on hunger say that almost half a million people in Gaza face starvation. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06...

Experts on hunger say that almost half a million people in Gaza face starvation.www.nytimes.com

Funny that the econ side of Vision 2030 started as "austerity & foreign investment" and is now "austerity for thee but multi-billion moon-shot boondoggles for me" www.wsj.com/world/middle...

www.wsj.com

"Everything about Britain’s nuclear-weapons infrastructure—its submarines, missiles, warheads, testing facilities, dockyards, bunkers, an opaque collective known in official documents as “the Defence Nuclear Enterprise”—is aging out." www.newyorker.com/news/letter-...

Britain’s Embrace of the Bombwww.newyorker.com The country’s nuclear-weapons program is in bad shape, yet it is one of only two nations actively rearming. What’s it all for?

Saudi government spending on "general items" is up considerably over the past 7 years, which - on a perhaps related note? - is where spending on "mega developments/projects" is recorded. Per pg. 37 here: www.mof.gov.sa/en/budget/20...

A Massacre Threatens Darfur — Again www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

A Massacre Threatens Darfur — Againwww.nytimes.com Darfur, the region of Sudan once synonymous with genocide, may be on the brink of a new chapter of horror.

I'm not sure folks up North understand that the Deep South model of undermining higher education combines draconian political controls *with* funding increases. lailluminator.com/2024/06/03/m...

More money for higher ed campuses, more power for governor in 2024 session • Louisiana Illuminatorlailluminator.com Louisiana’s higher ed are walking away from the session with more cash new governance changes that could introduce more politics

My developing pet theory is that the WSJ storyline on the US-Saudi deal is entirely the product of Brett McGurk and his most sympathetic Saudi counterparts working their contacts with the WSJ specifically.

Real takeaway from the @WSJ story seems to be that Saudi Arabia can expect the below so long as it agrees in principle to the (likely unworkable with US Senate & Israeli government alike) formal treaty. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

"For years, Joshua Wright juggled a wife, kids, mistresses and a lucrative career protecting some of the world’s biggest companies. He ended one affair with a text, and it all started to tumble." www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...

www.wsj.com

Lee Sandlin's "Losing the War," for the Chicago Reader, remains a thought-provoking meditation on the passage of time and the fading memories of indescribable horrors (WW2). www.leesandlin.com/articles/Los...

www.leesandlin.com

The DMV should lean into its zanier assets, like the combination Methodist Church/gas station (up for sale if I recall correctly)

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Andrew M Leber

Remember when Obama decided to get “tough on immigration” in 2014 to win over voters in the center and his own staffers were like why did we do that, it won us zero votes and alienated some of our base? Reposting for no particular reason!

This was in 2015.

"A protest tent from an adversarial state is preserved as a symbol of courage at a US museum; a similar object is criminalized when it challenges establishment power in this country. The contradiction exposes the bounds of American freedom." www.thenation.com/article/worl...

Grieving Tiananmen as US Cops Crush Campus Protestswww.thenation.com To reclaim the legacy of Tiananmen for emancipatory ends, we must release it from Cold War politics and place it in a longer, larger history of struggle.

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After listening to Biden, here are some quick thoughts in response to the speech. It has one primary target audience. The Israeli public. Hence no explicit mention of the PA or Palestinian state despite reports that the administration insists on these components in its talks with Jerusalem. 1/

Biden's ME speech today: after obligatory Trump comments he laid out the new Israeli ceasefire offer implicitly endorsed by him. Key points - 3 stages: Stage 1: 6 weeks. Full ceasefire and IDF withdrawal from *populated* areas. 1/ www.youtube.com/live/l-U3w0q...

President Biden Delivers Remarks on the Middle Eastwww.youtube.com The White House

Fewer robustness checks, more gut checks...

Interesting how we've gone from Oman having the lone personalist monarchy in the GCC's dynastic monarchies to almost the complete opposite pattern. (Largely unremarked on in English scholarship because almost nobody has research access).

"Well, what about publishing with the non-top journals?" [7 months in] "Awaiting Reviewer Selection"

Long shot but anybody in New Orleans want to see Sean Paul on Friday?

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Polisky junior scholars! If you work on authoritarian politics in any way, consider presenting at the @apsgworkshop.bsky.social workshop! I presented last December & it was a great experience with super helpful feedback from discussants, organizers & other attendees alike. DL: 31 May apsg.work/cfp/

Call for Papers Fall 2024!apsg.work The Authoritarian Political Systems Group is pleased to announce a Call for Papers. We are accepting submissions for our new season of online workshops taking place from 10 September 2024 to 17 Decemb...

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Yale University Press is having a spring sale! 50% off AND free shipping w/discount code Y24SAVE50 yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...

The Yemen Modelyalebooks.yale.edu A close look at failed U.S. policies in the Middle East, offering a fresh perspective on how best to reorient goals in the region In this book Alexandra S...