calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.
this will be, fundamentally, unchanged from every single other poll this year, and you can belive it's a plausible reflection of the outcome in november or not.
oh actually let me add one more thing: nyt/sienna will probably show trump narrowly winning women. maybe even white women
At first I thought maybe this accounts for NTs that couldn’t hold their nose and vote for Biden in 2020 but now think it’s time to get Biden out of office at all costs.
But then I recalled that turnout in 2020 was historically high, so where are these people coming from?
A special kind of freak who can't be bothered to vote but they can be bothered to pick up an unknown number and then not hang up when it's a survey and then answer all the substantive questions and complete the demo questions.
