The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter: calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.

calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.

this will be, fundamentally, unchanged from every single other poll this year, and you can belive it's a plausible reflection of the outcome in november or not. oh actually let me add one more thing: nyt/sienna will probably show trump narrowly winning women. maybe even white women

Trump favored among people who could've voted in 2020 but didn't for some reason.

Gotta wonder if that translates to actual turnout or not

I'll take the "or not."

The real question, dead serious not being a smartass, is what the fuck is Nate Cohn's obsession with people who were eligible but didn't bother to vote and slapping the label "likely voter" on them for no apparent reason?

Like is the non-response/incomplete response problem so bad that this is just sticking as many fingers in as many holes as they can to try and stop the whole thing from collapsing?

Did they vote in this year's primary? Or in 2022? I know there are some first-time voters in every election, but I really do think you need a track record to be LV.

Nate Cohn: “let’s just add in a big ol dollop of ‘never fucking voted before but super to the right’ into this”

It does seem odd to include among that sample. Feels….thumb on scale-y

Presumably his LV screen isn't "opinions of likely voters" & more "a blend of respondents that reflects a likely blend of voters"

Fwiw Pew has a lot of good stuff on this if you're curious. Pollsters basically ask a bunch of Qs and then cross with vote history to see if likely to vote. IMO there are good reasons to be skeptical of the polls generally but NYT does know what they're doing. www.pewresearch.org/methods/2016...

2: Measuring the likelihood to votewww.pewresearch.org The survey literature has long shown that more respondents say they intend to vote than actually cast a ballot (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2001; Silver et al.

At first I thought maybe this accounts for NTs that couldn’t hold their nose and vote for Biden in 2020 but now think it’s time to get Biden out of office at all costs. But then I recalled that turnout in 2020 was historically high, so where are these people coming from?

A special kind of freak who can't be bothered to vote but they can be bothered to pick up an unknown number and then not hang up when it's a survey and then answer all the substantive questions and complete the demo questions.

People who uniquely hate the government above all else.

Wait, so 6% of all voters are undecided, but 19% of people who actually voted in 2020 are undecided? I need way more explanation here cause that is completely counterintuitive.

Wait, 2020 had the 2nd highest turnout for a presidential election on record, trailing only 1960 based on voting age population. Who was eligibile to vote last time and didn't but would vote this time? If anything you'd expect a reversion to the mean with two candidates this unpopular.

18-22 year olds and...

He pretty solidly won white women in the prior two elections, I would actually expect to see that go up, perversely.

By 2 in 2016 and 7 in 2020

Shows Trump leading 48-40 among 18-29 year olds; 50-41 among Hispanics; 48-32 among non-white, non-Black, non-Hispanic; and only 53% of Black voters are currently leaning towards Biden.

Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Findswww.nytimes.com Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, an uptick since the debat...

lol. lmao.

The only reasonable response to the Times poll

Black voters have moved forty points to the republicans in four years. sure, nate. why not.

Apparently the black vote is better than the last Sienna/nyt poll and than other polls that show race dep

Man, this is why I don't believe a god damned thing about these polls.

Like you said @swolecialism.bsky.social it would be a lot easier to not be totally blackpilled about these polls if their cross tabs bore even a passing resemblance to this reality or one even remotely near it

If that's actually real KHive, BTS, and Swifties combined couldn't save us

Like, Black George Washington couldn't save us.

it's Trump +6, up from +3 pre-debate haven't dug into the crosstabs yet, though

Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Findswww.nytimes.com Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, an uptick since the debat...

Yeah - I don't want to unskew the polls, but it is wonky. Biden leads among anyone who voted in 2020, so the gap is entirely people who skipped 2020.

Overall, we'd need to see the polls be systematically wrong, such that Biden is punished in the same ways, pretty repeatedly, rather than those polls reflecting reality.

that's basically where I am Trump was a polling error away from winning in 2016, and that polling error happened there may well be a polling error now that ends up favoring Biden, but we are at the point of needing there to be a polling error

Okay but... these polling numbers are absurd, right? 53% support from Black voters for Biden? That's beyond apocalyptic if you were to take it seriously, and also completely at odds with actual results in the past few years, right?

53% Black voters for Biden would imply that Black voters have swung R+35 since 2022.

if I waited until I saw cross-tabs that made sense I'd never listen to polling this is why I don't trust <1% response rate polling any farther than I can kick it error bar may be +/- 10pts which isn't very informative

Yeah - there are good reasons to think the polls are fucked up, but it's not conclusive.

one thing I have not seen mentioned much is that these types of polling bounces are common after, say, the conventions, and generally have a short half-life. pretty sure one in 2016 said Clinton +12 or something immediately following the DNC. not ready to rule this one out of that category yet.

Yeah, it is June and not October, after all

I don't think a trend that shows up in multiple polls is going to be a consistent polling error. There may be an outlier out there, but let's be real -- Trump won the debate, and Biden cast doubt about his vitality. Of course Trump gets a boost from that. What Biden needs to do is fight back.

Biden's approval has been underwater for a long time at this point, so I'm not surprised that someone who didn't vote in 2020 and is voting now is likely to be a "Biden isn't good and should be replaced" voter there are valid reasons to criticize polling right now but it's consistently pretty bad

That's plausible! But I think a lot of them are likely to not vote again.

For me, the question is, do we expect 2024 to be higher or lower turnout than 2020, the highest-turnout election in 60 years? It's possible we see similar turnout levels! But I am assuming that with low voter enthusiasm and less voting-by-mail that we will not.

Even a return to 2008 turnout would mean a 4-point drop in turnout among the voting-eligible population. A return to 2016 would be a 7-point drop. If Trump's success is strongest among people who didn't vote in 2020, then "Trump's support drops more than Biden's" seems more likely than vice versa.

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