I think part of what is making everyone so deranged right now is that we all know the polls are really off but have no idea what direction. Yeah sure Biden is up five in Michigan and down seven in Pennsylvania, that checks out, that’s where things actually are.
Biden trails Trump by just 2 points across key states, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult shows, even as three in 10 Democrats say he should leave the race trib.al/GlWZVox
Like you might be freaking out because Biden is about to lose 45 states or you might be freaking out when Biden is going to win with a better margin than 2020. No one knows. Nate Silver and that Redistrict guy now make these predictions based on who brings them more eye of newt
Anyway PA is trending left. Casey’s about to clean McCormick out. My guess is Biden wins PA pretty comfortably, it’s the other states that worry me more
Somewhere around 2015, people got really sick of posters and started lying to them. I don’t think it was an organized rebellion, but more of an organic rebellion. I haven’t trusted polls since, even when they show my side winning.
i still feel like "close in the polls" means he's likely to win, as people under the age of 45 (a demo that skews to biden) simply do not answer the telephone
the cross-tabs keep saying stuff like “trump leading 60-40 with black men 18-29” and it’s like walking into a house of mirrors, and then the mirrors start spinning, and then i fall through a trap door and i'm hurtling downwards through a maze
either he’s finding ways of bamboozling the groups and people he has the most obvious disdain for or some systemic error is warping this shit in new and baffling ways
I'm gonna just call bullshit on any poll in 2024.
Who TF actually answers the random calls from pollsters? Nuts of all types, but not me or any of my friends.
The only poll that will matter is the exit poll.
Dobbs could be a factor specifically to the women who didn't answer the poll.
pollsters have a type of expertise and they are certainly fully aware of the shortcomings of traditional polling. none of what you’re describing is new in this cycle. at the same time, margins are tight now, and differential turnout is, apparently, less predictable than it used to be so 🤷♂️
I'm old enough to remember when Biden was going to get boat raced in MI because of Gaza, and yet here we are. I hate sounding like a 2020 MAGA chud but these polls are just...to inconsistent to be right at the levels people are reading into them.
