Some questions that need clear, logical answers that are grounded in reality before replacing a nominee:
What percentage of current campaign staff would stay? What percentage of field sites would remain operational? What percentage of volunteers would stay and campaign for a tbd candidate?
I'm not the expert you are but surely it's obvious that if Biden drops out it will be for 'health reasons'? Not 'aw shucks I just realised I can't do this'? And in the realpolitik of the former, mostly everyone will fall into line? Assuming the Dems don't make a meal of who replaces him!
That last assumption is something I would not count on given how they are responding to the current candidate.
His departure would not be ‘unexpected’ - I don’t know the sympathy that would rally people would be there. The other issues down that thread would still remain, and those aren’t small.
At this point if he did have an adverse health event and couldn’t continue I don’t feel confident that “rallying” would outpace “I told you so” for a lot of folks.
The last assumption is the key thing, isn't it? Fundamentally, if the Dems had their act together, they could save this. But that's a big if.
But I disagree that it would be unexpected. Nobody thinks he's a spring chicken, voters would fall in before ballot time. It is doable - against a felon
