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Some questions that need clear, logical answers that are grounded in reality before replacing a nominee: What percentage of current campaign staff would stay? What percentage of field sites would remain operational? What percentage of volunteers would stay and campaign for a tbd candidate?
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I'm not the expert you are but surely it's obvious that if Biden drops out it will be for 'health reasons'? Not 'aw shucks I just realised I can't do this'? And in the realpolitik of the former, mostly everyone will fall into line? Assuming the Dems don't make a meal of who replaces him!
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That last assumption is something I would not count on given how they are responding to the current candidate. His departure would not be ‘unexpected’ - I don’t know the sympathy that would rally people would be there. The other issues down that thread would still remain, and those aren’t small.
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At this point if he did have an adverse health event and couldn’t continue I don’t feel confident that “rallying” would outpace “I told you so” for a lot of folks.