Some questions that need clear, logical answers that are grounded in reality before replacing a nominee:
What percentage of current campaign staff would stay? What percentage of field sites would remain operational? What percentage of volunteers would stay and campaign for a tbd candidate?
Where would the $ come from to staff a national campaign overnight?
Would Biden campaign for the new nominee? How would you guarantee that Biden campaigning/not campaigning is not used as a wedge by Republicans?
Why would it not be Harris? What is the argument in the affirmative for an alternative that *actually* wants the job? How do you expect endorsements for Biden to transfer to the new candidate? What is the coalition that the new candidate would provide that Biden does not?
What would the policy portfolio of the new candidate be? Who would they keep on as staff/cabinet from the Biden Admin? What staff/cabinet members would leave?
What would happen to PACs and outside donors/campaign ads that have been shot or are about to be? How would this be paid for? How do we guarantee that the name of the new candidate tbd is *actually* on the ballot since states set up the elections?
What is the percentage of people that would be demobilized by removing Biden compared to those mobilizing by a tbd candidate? Do they offset?
How would tbd candidate overcome name recognition deficit of “Former President Trump” ?
What are the policy consequences for the country in the lead up to the election if Biden lame-ducks himself?
Who are the people that would broker the new nominee? Why do we think this tbd candidate would be better than Biden given the people that would pick?
The debate was so bad that large groups of his own supporters have called on him to quit. Not just pundits. My son messaged me in despair told me not to watch and signed off #Whitmer2024. There’s no coming back from that
The polls have consistently showed Biden losing. If he were far ahead, as he ought to be on the merits, no one would be panicking about a bad day.
It's true that no one else polls well in hypothetical matchups. But Biden is a guaranteed loser. Time to roll the dice.
honestly anyone who even pretends to think parachuting their preferred white person in over the sitting pres or VP is a good strategy is not to be taken seriously. they don't want to win, they want to be pandered to and they don't understand how power and money work
I'm not the expert you are but surely it's obvious that if Biden drops out it will be for 'health reasons'? Not 'aw shucks I just realised I can't do this'? And in the realpolitik of the former, mostly everyone will fall into line? Assuming the Dems don't make a meal of who replaces him!
That last assumption is something I would not count on given how they are responding to the current candidate.
His departure would not be ‘unexpected’ - I don’t know the sympathy that would rally people would be there. The other issues down that thread would still remain, and those aren’t small.
At this point if he did have an adverse health event and couldn’t continue I don’t feel confident that “rallying” would outpace “I told you so” for a lot of folks.
The last assumption is the key thing, isn't it? Fundamentally, if the Dems had their act together, they could save this. But that's a big if.
But I disagree that it would be unexpected. Nobody thinks he's a spring chicken, voters would fall in before ballot time. It is doable - against a felon
