vocational politics posting account: Yeah gotta disagree here the polling has been awful all the time, but it's awful in ways that do not make sense. The top lines have been reliant on the greatest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act since last September. Gotta be consistent here and keep saying: FUCK NUMBERS

Yeah gotta disagree here the polling has been awful all the time, but it's awful in ways that do not make sense. The top lines have been reliant on the greatest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act since last September. Gotta be consistent here and keep saying: FUCK NUMBERS

Let’s be frank: the polling is awful www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/07/lets...

Let's be frank: the polling is awful - Lawyers, Guns & Moneywww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com The conclusion you want to draw from this is up to you, and you can try to UNSKEW THE POLLS if you want, but I don’t think the data is ambiguous at this point: Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presi...

Even if you take polling at its word (I am also team fuck numbers), then you have to note that the complete freakout over the debate online is….largely not showing up in polling. A couple point drop in some (but not all) surveys. Hardly end of the world shit.

Not a single poll addresses the real realignment that the largest voting block in 2024 will be Mellinals and Zellenials. The under 45s will gain 8% of the vote. The gold standard youth polls show Biden close to his 2020 numbers (D+23%).

Run the numbers. Biden at D+23 with under 45s (40% of the vote), even with Gen X (was +D3% in 20) that means Trump is R+23% with Boomers (he was R+3% in 2020). I just can't make the math work.

Yeah this is another big reason why I’m deeply skeptical of the run of the mill pollsters. Any big oversample poll of Black/Youth/Women/Hispanic voters shows numbers generally where you’d expect them with no evidence of some massive realignment waiting in the wings

the og unskewing in '12 was looking at the partisan slant of a pollster and "adjusting" on that. not questioning the crosstabs.

Wouldn’t response bias actually feed into the crosstabs nonsense

Even if the numbers are underestimating Biden's chances, which is possible, I still think the trend within polls has to be considered alarming

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