Mike Konczal

@mtkonczal.bsky.social

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www.mikekonczal.com

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New piece, on the 3 arguments against recent inflation being a cost-push supply shock: - why wasn't there deflation? - why was inflation broad? - what about job openings? and giving a sense of what we know. Using @ivanwerning.bsky.social's work throughout. mikekonczal.substack.com/p/the-three-...

The Three Open Questions When it Comes to Our Cost-Push Supply Shock Inflationmikekonczal.substack.com In which we seek to lock down better answers for everything that just happened in light of the historic disinflation of the past year.

My slides for a presentation on the evolution of the inflation debate since 2021, and the case for 2023's disinflation being supply-side driven, that I gave at IEA this past week. Some fun stuff for both newbies and veterans of the past three years. www.mikekonczal.com/IEA_presenta...

Mike Konczal – IEA Presentationwww.mikekonczal.com

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Mike Konczal

Reply to

George Pearkes

Major narrative violation in accommodation & food services wage growth. If sticky wages were an inflation threat, this low pre-requisite industry is where you would expect to see it. Instead, collapsed to lowest growth rate in years. QoQ Ann. % chg shown. #NumbersDay

Here's a question for #econsky : what explains this level of deceleration of nominal wages alongside low unemployment? They have dropped a sustained 1-2 percentage points (even as real wages grow), which doesn't happen outside recessions or unemployment. I have my thoughts, but curious to yours.

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Mike Konczal

So, I miss being able to talk through economics on the forum turned hellsite. Not sure there are enough people I want to reach here, but let’s see. Here’s a 🧵on where I stand on current macro.

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Mike Konczal

Reply to

Paul Krugman

So what was the 2021-2 inflation surge about? The most parsimonious explanation is that we had a huge supply shock from the pandemic, far more persistent than I among others imagined, which nonetheless eventually got resolved 6/ rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/u...

mikekonczal.substack.com/p/will-the-l... Deep dive into some of the empirics of disinflation and the theory that the “last mile” will be the hardest. Came away from the exercise that these arguments, which may or may not be true, don’t jump out in the data so far. 📈📉

Will The ‘Last Mile’ Of Inflation Be the Hardest? Three Reasons Why It May Not.mikekonczal.substack.com A place to organize my thoughts, debut my new inflation density app, put code somewhere, and outline some things I'm watching on the inflation front as we go into the end of 2023.

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Mike Konczal

Hi, I'm Jaime and I've been working for 8 years for the Wikimedia Foundation. The following are personal views and do not represent in any way the position of the Foundation (I don't and cannot speak on behalf of it). However, you may have seen this question by Mr. Musk and I wanted to respond A 🧵:

The Federal Reserve's important triannual "Survey of Consumer Finance" - where a lot of wealth data comes from - apparently comes out Thursday, October 19th. It's for 2022, after last being updated in 2019. What are people going to be looking for? What are first checks? #EconSky 📉📈

Test run for where I think I'm going to land: automated monthly analysis of BLS numbers on my webpage, with a quick BLUF added. I don't think the frantic "1/x" posting lives on after twitter, and that's ok. Blogs were great, we should bring them back! Thoughts? #CPI www.mikekonczal.com/cpi.html

Mike Konczal - CPI Inflationwww.mikekonczal.com

It's so over. After falling 38% this year, egg prices rose for the first time within 2023. #CPI

One notable change in initial #CPI coverage over the past year is that downloading the flat files from the BLS website could be done in a few seconds after 8:30am a year ago, and now it's slow (multiple minutes) through about 8:45am. So we did it? It's now very popular.

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Mike Konczal

Reply to

Mike Konczal

Check it out. Subscribe to the #NumbersDay feed for all your #JobsDay, #CPI, #JOLTS, #beigebook, #FOMC news. Tweaks and feedback welcome. bsky.app/profile/did:...

#NumbersDay

Feed by @aaronsojourner.org

Spitballing, but it might be worth getting a second hashtag emoji thing (sorry don’t know correct term) going for #NumbersDay to distinguish from #EconSky 📉📈. They are different vibes worth separating, and being able to see everyone’s data release analysis in one thread is very useful.

give me more #JobsDay on bsky! Jobs Day leads to JOLTs Day, JOLTS Day leads to CPI Day, and CPI Day leads to the Dark Side (econsky) 📉📈

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Mike Konczal

Still one of the best government website-design-as-policy choices I've seen IMO 🩺📊

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Mike Konczal

WGA reaches a tentative deal and initial reports suggest they got most of what they were striking for. A good reminder that collective action still matters here in America! www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09...

Hollywood Writers Strike: Screenwriters Reach Tentative Deal With Studios to End Strikewww.nytimes.com The Writers Guild of America got most of what it wanted. With actors still on picket lines, however, much of Hollywood will remain shut down.

An interesting exercise, inspired by Paul Romer's blog; seasonally unadjusted monthly core CPI inflation rate by month for 2019, 2022, and 2023. Though much higher in January, now it's sliding into 2019 rates. + more notable decline here - may have bigger year-end increase, jerky annual dynamics.

Big comprehensive update to the national accounts means all economic vibes and narratives are open to change later this week. And with, at least, underlying PCE category tables changing (adding in new truck info) we'll see which of my scripts still work when they come!

tfw you are proud of the cheap, used globe you got your kid, that they love, and you get it home and note Russia is the “Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.”

New post: a dive into inflation equations, and whether they can help us figure out why inflation has fallen without unemployment going up. It’s cause to celebrate, but we shouldn’t let that relief make us stop asking questions. 📈📉 https://mikekonczal.substack.com/p/inflation-came-down-and-everyone

Inflation Came Down and Everyone Was Rightmikekonczal.substack.com Inflation has been falling over the past year, yet, inconsistent with 'mainstream macro,' unemployment has not increased. What are some of the reasons this could happen?

This, to me, is the story of the recovery. Here's actual employment and labor force participation versus CBO projections from before the American Rescue Plan and before covid. We're actually beating out the *non-covid* scenario as inflation falls. That's the labor market Big Fiscal can produce. 📉📈

Still noisy on the monthly - openings down, quits up in May - the trend across 2023 is clear. We've seen a decrease in both quits and job openings without any increase in unemployment - something that was a ??? in 2022 - consistent with the availability of a soft landing to bring down inflation. 📉📈

Happy 4th everyone!

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Mike Konczal

@ivanwerning.bsky.social Well well well, I could have bothered you about HANK models on a whole other platform instead.

Here for ruthless cross-promotional Australia kids content: Emma Memma (solo career starting after her time with The Wiggles) live-action dancing with Bingo from Bluey. This has taken up a lot of our day over here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhBFWGeoVqo

Bingo's Dance Lesson 🧡 feat. Emma Memma | Blueywww.youtube.com Watch Bluey full episodes!ABC Kids (Australia): https://iview.abc.net.au/show/blueyDisney Junior and Disney+: https://www.disneyplus.com/series/bluey/CBeebie...

@vtg2.bsky.social Starting this week (with JOLTS) @nickbunker.bsky.social and I are going to try and move BLS release threads over here. It would make a *perfect* Politico econ trend story - "The cool econsky conversation that is taking over" - that in turn moves it faster. Just sayin.

@ernietedeschi.bsky.social Quickly, before all the adults get here and can read this, what's the *real* story about inflation?

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Mike Konczal

Ok, I did this. Economics BlueSky feed Post with: 📉📈 https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:yw3qqfa7hrhmwbc6wyrq5u7f/feed/aaabqfmu2zuck

#EconSky 📉📈

Feed by @paulgp.com

Current baseline: I don’t think anything is going to replace the talent-scout/assignment-desk nature of Peak Twitter that built a lot of careers, in addition to making a lot of great work. I get the panic for those (like myself) who used that, but the quicker we acknowledge it the better. Thoughts?