John Holbo: I find it hard to imagine there is this significant segment of D's who are fired up for Kamala BUT would stay home if it's Whitmer. That seems like a boutique split to me.

What odds do you give the following? IF Biden steps back so we get a contested convention (if he doesn't we don't) THEN it goes smoothly & we get someone & no bad feeling. Because the party is basically unified over: beat Trump. 'Smoothly' includes: sharp fight but swift reconciliation. No crack-up.

Zero.

Really? I give it, like, 25%. But it all depends on Biden stepping back voluntarily and inviting it. Without his first move, nothing can happen. He's got it locked up if he wants to insist on staying in. Why are you so pessimistic?

I'll agree with hilzoy. Harris is the heir apparent. Additionally, there are too many factions with too many preferences. Beyond Harris, there is no single candidate to adhere to.

I just don't think folks who would prefer Whitmer are that at fundamental odds with the folks who would prefer Harris. There are major cleavages - Israel - but I don't think any of the top candidates are going to divide over that one. Different preferences, sure. But that's restaurant menu stuff.

Oh no, it never is that simple. People are invested personally. And there is the issue of replacing a woman of color with a white woman or a white man like Gavin Newsome.

I don't think it will literally be all friendly-like. But I think there is a good chance that it will be a short sharp fight with no lasting bad feeling. I think Newsome would be a poor pick. But I don't think Harris fans would take their ball and go home if it were Whitmer. Some grumbling yeah.

That devolves to the argument that they have nowhere else to go. But they can stay home.

I find it hard to imagine there is this significant segment of D's who are fired up for Kamala BUT would stay home if it's Whitmer. That seems like a boutique split to me.

I think you are leaving out the hard feelings from the fight that would precede the decision.

And there is an enormous emotional aspect to replacing a woman of color with a white woman. Having been displaced by white men, I can say it is not a boutique difference.

There’s also the minor problem of ditching the ticket we democratically selected in the primary. I mean. I’m not personally fired up for Biden/Harris, but it’s hard to feel like I’m voting to defend democracy with last-minute ticket of undemocratic replacements.

Uhhhhh the African American vote? That delivered South Carolina to Biden (thanks Jim clyborn) and thus the nomination for 2020? Those voters?

African-American voters only went for Obama, in '08, after he won Iowa. African-Americans went for Old Joe in '20 in part because he seemed safe. If the pattern holds, if Whitmer got it, African-American voters would decide Whitmer > Trump. I could be wrong, of course.

This is probably true, but it is a very cynical calculation. Reject the woman of color and then expect the African-American vote. Those of us who are not white men recognize what we can lose in this election, but we are oh so tired of being told that we should step aside "for the good" of something.

It's not a cynical calculation. It's a prediction. I started this whole thread with a pure hypothetical. For the record, I am not even sure I think Biden should back out. And, if he does, it should almost certainly be Harris who gets it. But maybe it's Whitmer. Sure. It's not my call, after all.

I asked: if this happened, what would happen? My postulate is: the party wouldn't blow up. Because there really aren't deep rifts in it, and everyone wants to beat Trump. That's it.

If you agree it's true, that's good enough for me! also, no one is saying Harris should 'step aside' for Whitmer. I'm just saying that if Joe stepped back there would presumably have to be some kind of devised ballot procedure at the convention, not just Harris getting it automatically.

I really think that you are underestimating the damage this would do. I've given personal examples of my feelings to help you understand what is involved. Dropping in someone to take Harris's place in an extraordinary measure will create enormous bad feeling and lose some votes.

I can't say how many, because of the depth of the need not to elect Trump. But what you are proposing will only damage the party. Here's what I wrote earlier on Friday.

Biden-Harris in 2024! - Lawyers, Guns & Moneywww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com I had planned to write today on Heather Cox Richardson’s three recent columns discussing implications of the Dodd decision and the death of Roe v. Wade (June 24, June 25, June 26). I recommend today’s...

Also, what’s the problem people are trying to solve? They’re worried about how frail he appears… so replace the VP?

That depends. If Biden is truly convinced he's too weak to continue a campaign, maybe he simply resigns, making Harris POTUS now. In that case she's now the incumbent, and that may de facto obviate a competitive process, even if he formally releases his delegates for an open convention.

As a progressive, being told we need to "step aside for the good of the country" is something we've been hearing for some time.

To be clear no one - not me, in this thread - is suggesting Harris should 'step aside'. It's actually not that complicated. She is the VP hence the presumptive successor, but she also polls poorly - fairly or unfairly. Were it to be the case that Joe steps back, there would be some debate not none.

The whole situation is complicated, but that very fact - the fact that it would be complicated if Joe stepped back - is not complicated. So, the fact that Harris wouldn't just sail in is foreseeable, merely inevitable. If he stepped back, Biden could and should try to boost Harris into the slot.

Yo white man here agreeing with you. On principle but also politics. The AA vote is hugely important to the democratic coalition. Might be wise to consider!

I would literally never cross my mind to consider that it could be otherwise.

But you are ignoring it by saying, in effect, women are replaceable, let's just drop Whitmer in instead of Harris. Which is just a little bit sexist too.

The Black vote is boutique vote now. I don't understand why people don't get this immediately.

How is the black vote boutique? I strongly disagree.

Whoever the candidate is, they need the African-American vote solidly.

Oh sorry I'll bet you meant to say I'M saying the black vote is boutique. No. My view is that African-American voters, for a quarter century, have been the most pragmatic bloc of the electorate. They went for Obama only after he won Iowa. They went for Old Joe as safe. Whitmer > Trump. I'm guessing.

If you believe poll crosstabs at all: black voters, young voters, Latino voters but especially young Latinas are the most disaffected. Some even say they're switching to Trump. If you believe poll crosstabs at all, that's the key swing voting blocs that Dems have to win back & turn out.

I don't believe poll crosstabs, to be clear: but I do think they show disaffection, lack of enthusiasm, turnout challenges. Disaffected Dems are answering expressively, and those are the most disaffected demographics.

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