if you’re playing the wrong-rock game about Biden doing events at which he campaigns normally and demonstrates that he’s not senile, I kind of think the onus is on you to reassure people like me that you’re not going to wrong-rock Nominee Harris
what you want isn’t Nominee Harris. it’s a comfortable lead over Trump. the evidence that switching to Harris will produce that comfortable lead is nonexistent.
so reassure me that you’re not going to continue filling your drawers if you get what you say you want.
There is no lead people will find reassuring. This site is full of weirdo neurotics. If the numbers are high the polls will be untrustworthy. If the numbers are even higher people will switch to insisting there is enough room to do their one weird trick.
My baseline assumptions are on that in November 2020 the enthusiasm for ousting Trump was high and Biden still barely won the states he needed, now the enthusiasm gap has narrowed or even flipped,
And the downside risk of failure is catastrophically bad, so yeah I’m deeply concerned
The legal issue Roberts thrust into the NY case is so fraught, open-ended, & unanswered, I find it very hard to believe that there will be an unstayed sentence in September–November
The trial court will be the first-look and if he imposes a sentence it’ll likely be stayed on appeal
The “immunity-privilege” issue also now creates grounds for collateral attack, so if a NY state court doesn’t give Trump the answer he wants he can go to federal court. A dozen overlapping decision makers now—for a sentence to stick there’s have to be unanimity on no stay of sentence pending appeal
I'm certain that was the point of it in the first place, too. I do think there's a reasonable chance they'll backtrack after the election, assuming Trump loses and the need to help him to advance their shared political goals fades.
I agree the immunity-privilege thing was designed to dispense with the federalism problem (which makes everything that much more cynical) but don’t feel sanguine about it being reversed
I do see a few openings to chipping away at the holding a bit, though it’s a crime Roberts left us with this mess
I have not gotten around to reading it yet, but I have serious doubts that a New York Judge is going to read it to provide lifetime immunity for any acts committed in or out of office.
There's a lot to be freaked out about, but that's not a good place to make decisions or interpretations of reality from. Also reality being actually scary is compatable with everyone on here being primed to freak out. bsky.app/profile/tznk...
Depression is sometimes misunderstood, including by the depressed, as being sad when you don't have a reason to be. And it's more like you're predisposed to be sad (or anhedonic, or or or) so normal triggers are worse for you.
It seems weirdo neuroticism in political hobbyists works the same way.
