Aubrey Gilleran: There really aren’t. Trump has a committed 47-48% of the nation and has since his first run in 2016. There will not be a 10-point victory.

Blocked.

Against someone as awful as Trump, Dems should be 10+ points ahead. There are candidates that could deliver that result, and that would not only secure the WH but also deliver a huge range of down ballot races.

There really aren’t. Trump has a committed 47-48% of the nation and has since his first run in 2016. There will not be a 10-point victory.

There won’t be a 10 point victory but an electoral college landslide is still distinctly possible (which could happen with a 5 point victory)

I don’t think it’s particularly more likely with an alternative to Biden (especially one other than Harris, who both primary and general election voters have voted for).

Incidentally all of the recent Ipsos polls of hypothetical matchups have everyone other than Michelle Obama losing to Trump. She’s not gonna run and let’s recall that Hillary Clinton was an immensely popular public figure until she became a candidate. Apples and oranges.

I don’t think that’s accurate. There’s about 30% of the electorate that’s fully committed to Trump no matter what. There are lots of “double haters” out there who have voted for Trump and/or Biden but are still unsure about this election.

It’s accurate to Trump’s polls and his previous two electoral performances.

What I’m suggesting is, there’s a substantial portion of Trump voters who are not fully committed to him this round. You can hear that in focus groups.

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