Against someone as awful as Trump, Dems should be 10+ points ahead. There are candidates that could deliver that result, and that would not only secure the WH but also deliver a huge range of down ballot races.
I don’t think that’s accurate. There’s about 30% of the electorate that’s fully committed to Trump no matter what. There are lots of “double haters” out there who have voted for Trump and/or Biden but are still unsure about this election.
What I’m suggesting is, there’s a substantial portion of Trump voters who are not fully committed to him this round. You can hear that in focus groups.