Shouro Dasgupta, PhD

@shourodasgupta.bsky.social

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Environmental economist - Fondazione CMCC | Lecturer - Ca' Foscari Venezia
Visiting Senior Fellow - Grantham Research Institute, LSE (@granthamlse.bsky.social)

#climatechange #labour #foodsecurity #health #inequality

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Carbon Brief

@profejzrobinson.bsky.social @granthamlse.bsky.social

Prof @profejzrobinson.bsky.social (@GRI_LSE) presenting on attributing labour force changes to historical #climatechange.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD

Is it possible to attribute worsening health outcomes to the changing climate? We think it is. See our new paper (me @granthamlse.bsky.social and @shourodasgupta.bsky.social, CMCC) for more evidence of the health co-benefits of tackling climate change. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

1/n NEW PUBLICATION #Environmental Research Letters Climate, weather & child health: quantifying health co-benefits w/ Prof @profejzrobinson.bsky.social @granthamlse.bsky.social We quantify links between #climatechange & child health using subnational data from 130 countries.

Climate, weather, and child health: quantifying health co-beneﬁts - IOPscienceiopscience.iop.org Climate, weather, and child health: quantifying health co-beneﬁts, Shouro Dasgupta, Elizabeth J Z Robinson

2/n Non-linear, convex relationship between temperature & child health Outcomes are minimised at 16.7-18.9°C. Temperatures in Tunisia, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Ethiopia, Uganda & Kenya are already beyond this range Higher frequency of heatwaves & drought worsen child health.

3/n Socioeconomic drivers matter! Higher levels of wealth and education are associated with smaller negative impacts of climate change. This implies both that climate change may be increasing inequality, and that inequality is an important determinant of health outcomes.

4/n We compute #policyrelevant projections of child health using #CMIP6 warming scenarios Results show clear global health co-benefits of low emission scenario mitigation strategies Stark difference between Paris Agreement target scenario & near-catastrophic scenarios.

5/n Considerable spatial heterogeneity in projections S. Arabia, Chad, Kuwait & Burkina Faso projected to experience the highest increases in child mortality in the mid-term. Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali & Mauritania likely to experience the highest increases in long term.

6/n Estimated health co-benefits suggest that both mitigation and adaptation will be needed for decades to come. Three areas: reducing air pollution, improved diets, & more active lifestyles. Results makes clear that LMICs will find it increasingly difficult to achieve the SDGs

7/n As health of LMIC populations tend to be most harmed by climate change, the health co-benefits from more rapid emissions reductions are likely to be greatest in these countries. There is tremendous potential health co-benefits from both mitigation and adaptation strategies.

1/n The 2nd indicator in the #LancetCountdown #Europe by Prof @profejzrobinson.bsky.social & myself explores the impact of increasing temperature on labour supply (no. of working hours) in highly exposed occupations (agri, forestry, mining & quarrying, & construction) #CMCC @granthamlse.bsky.social

2/n During 2016–2020, labour supply in high-exposure sectors was 1.05% lower (~17 hours/ worker/year) due to temperature change compared to 1965–1994. Highest declines are estimated in Andalusia & the Balearic Islands in Spain, Cyprus, & the South Aegean region in Greece.

3/n The temperature-labour supply relationship is highly non-linear. Some cooler regions such as Salzburg (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy), and north and east Finland have had gains in labour supply due to warming. 🔗https://shorturl.at/inuMU

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD

Poverty is the leading cause of hunger in Europe. Dr. @shourodasgupta.bsky.social and I @granthamlse.bsky.social show how climate change is increasing food insecurity. More heatwaves & droughts drive up food prices, makes it harder for households to access sufficient healthy & nutritious food

In the latest @LCDEurope 2024 report - Prof @profejzrobinson.bsky.social & I track the impact of increasing frequency of #heatwaves and #droughts on access to sufficient healthy and nutritious food in #Europe. #CMCC @granthamlse.bsky.social #EIEE #IDAlert 🔗https://shorturl.at/inuMU

2/n Compared to 1981–2010, increased heatwaves frequency resulted in 1.12 percentage-points increase in food insecurity in 2021. Increasing drought frequency resulted in food insecurity being 0.47 percentage-points higher.

Even Europe is not immune to #climatechange induced increase in #foodinsecurity. In 2021, 16.3% of the population in Europe reported eating only a few kinds of food. 14.4% reported being unable to eat healthy & nutritious food 10.6% reported eating less than they thought they should.

4/n The main transmission channels are through impact on crop yields, disrupting supply chains, and price stability. Proactive safety nets are needed to protect the most vulnerable.

5/n We combine food insecurity data from @FAO #FIES with @CopernicusECMWF ERA5. Novel time-varying regression allows us to estimate whether the relationship between food insecurity, heatwaves, and droughts is changing over time.

2.4bln workers exposed annually to excessive heat at work & ~20K work-related deaths Extreme heat impact on workers is a human rights issue, #climatechange will worsen this situation Time for proactive labour protection measures #LabourDay #MayDay #CMCC @granthamlse.bsky.social

World Day for Safety & Health at Work - #Climatechange is already affecting occupational health & safety. #ILO estimates at least 2.41 billion workers exposed annually to excessive heat at work. Time for proactive labour protection measures everywhere #SafeDay2024 #CMCC.

Adapting to the impacts of extreme heat on Bangladesh’s labour force - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environmentt.co This policy brief considers how workers in Bangladesh can be protected from extreme heat while the country pursues a just transition to a low-carbon economy.

Read our @granthamlse.bsky.social policy brief focusing on heat stress and the labour force in #Bangladesh. Prof @profejzrobinson.bsky.social Lucia Letsch. 🔗 t.co/C89CDa2a8q

Thank you, Liz!

@granthamlse.bsky.social has an active and dynamic group of visiting scholars. It has been great to be hosting this week our visiting senior fellow @shourodasgupta.bsky.social from CMCC Venice Italy.

Always great to visit Prof @profejzrobinson.bsky.social @granthamlse.bsky.social. Lots of exciting & hopefully impactful work ongoing #climate #labour #health #foodsecurity #IDAlert #CMCC #PROCLIAS

Brilliant report from #GlobalWitness dlvr.it/T4Lphg My quote: We’re already seeing impacts of heat stress on workers around the world, particularly in outdoor/heavy-duty industries such as agriculture & construction...tailored labour protection policies required. #CMCC @granthamlse.bsky.social

Emissions connected to top oil and gas firms may cause millions of heat deaths by 2100, study findsdlvr.it Global witness analysis suggests 11.5 million deaths could be caused by burning of fuel produced by 2050

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD

It was great to be a part of the team, human health factsheet and infectious diseases storyline led by @shourodasgupta.bsky.social

The 1st ever European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) has been published today 1/n Delighted to lead the Human Health Factsheet & the Infectious Diseases Storyline w/ a team of experts @profejzrobinson.bsky.social #JanSemenza #CyrilCaminade #KatieJohnson #RachelLowe #JoacimRocklov shorturl.at/ahm25

2/n Key climate risks for human health: mortality & morbidity from increased heat stress & air pollution; geographic expansion & increased transmission of infectious diseases; increased risk of AMR; risks to outdoor workers due to increased heat stress stress on health systems.

3/n Warming, milder winters, increased frequency & intensity of floods & droughts are increasingly favourable for infectious, water, food-borne diseases- dengue, WNV, Lyme disease, TBE, Campylobacter & salmonella Risks are disproportionately felt by socially disadvantaged groups.

Coordination between EU & Member States needed action across timescales, new vector & infectious disease control programmes, early warning systems, health action plans, adaptation strategies, & resilience measures. #CMCC @granthamlse.bsky.social