R. Eric VanNewkirk: My fear is that I can see him winning in exactly the way he won the first time: a national popular vote blowout that's negated by the freaking Electrical College and eking out stadium-sized wins in a few swing states because of low turnout or whatever. Hoping I'm just being neurotic.

Look the important thing is that we never ever incorporate non-polling information into our interpretation of these results

Oh.

If we see Democrats winning by 5+ over expectation and overperforming in the midterms, fuck it, its a toss up now because the pollz said so

Sorry, man. Polls say we're about to see a racial realignment the likes of which we haven't seen since the Civil Rights Act was signed. Gotta prepare for it.

Times is already predrafting its "2024, year of the Hotep vote" as we speak

The irony is I can easily see Trump winning in pretty much the way he won the first time (minority and youth turnout drops, Biden's strength with older whites is overstated), but that's not what the polls are saying. So anyone banking on that is denying the polls as much as anyone else.

My fear is that I can see him winning in exactly the way he won the first time: a national popular vote blowout that's negated by the freaking Electrical College and eking out stadium-sized wins in a few swing states because of low turnout or whatever. Hoping I'm just being neurotic.

I genuinely expect Trump to lose the popular vote by a larger margin than he did in '16 and '20. It's not making me feel better.

bsky.app/profile/mdpo...

I simply won't believe it. I refuse to believe the majority of ppl would vote for Trump. If he is, my faith in everything will be destroyed.

That's not neurotic. That's the only way a non-incumbent Republican has won since 1988, and it's completely doable.

Thanks? At least I'm not neurotic? Though I may end up with a drinking problem instead?

Yeah, in retrospect, I'm unsure me saying, "You're not being neurotic; your fear is completely rational" was helpful. LOL. Sorry.

The good news is that we know what those swing states are, and I do not think the Biden campaign is going to take anything for granted.

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