If Team Biden can't allay the fears he is too old, voters will be implicitly pricing in Harris taking his office during the next term anyway. So you either comprehensively demonstrate the "Biden old" stuff is bogus, or if you can't (because true) or can't (because incompetent), get out of the way.
And they wouldn't be wrong to price that in. It's impossible to even credibly argue at this point that it's more likely than not he would be able to finish the term.
I'd put it firmly north of 50%. It was already a real chance before, now it's very plain. The man will be 86 in January 2029. If this is what he's like now, at 81... I mean, I really hate how morbid this whole thing is. But that's where we are. We all saw it and it really was that bad.
I continue to think that he's old, and holding that job (and the schedule, and the stress, and the physical demands) is just a lot. It's clearly a problem for running. I'm not convinced at all that he has a problem doing the job itself. Maybe so and we just don't know, but that's hardly certain.
The office will run surprisingly far just on auto-pilot if you have other people around you, tho it will feel a bit directionless. But campaigns can't really run on auto-pilot in the same way, and folks will be concerned about the country if he's not visibly up to it, even if they shouldn't be
I agree with all of this. I just think it is far overblown to suggest that he is seriously ill or on death's door. I think the most likely explanation is that he is just old but that, other than the actuarial tables, there is no concrete reason to think that he can't make it through another term.
