Ianrobo: last poll its weird !) released after polls open and delayed and 2) the gold standard showing this massive change plus SNP at 6% which is clearly wrong plus the green share ? @chadbourn.bsky.social Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2) SNP 6%

last poll its weird !) released after polls open and delayed and 2) the gold standard showing this massive change plus SNP at 6% which is clearly wrong plus the green share ? @chadbourn.bsky.social Labour 37% (-5) Conservatives 19% (nc) Reform UK 15% (nc) Lib Dems 11% (nc) Greens 9% (+2) SNP 6%

I was waiting for this last night and thought they’d given up.

they were delayed supposed to be at 6am and I think we can see why, it smells wrong, for example on most preferred PM Keir for no reason at all dropped 8% ... still above Sunak but smells wrong

The smell test is important. That 6% SNP - double everyone else - doesn’t feel right.

it is wrong as simple as that so you can add 2% of that to lab easy and 2% from greens and that is 41%, now of course they may be totally correct but final result is clear anyway

only thing Mark is in 2017 I said the same thing, the last polls showed May losing her majority and I said smelt wrong so learnt to trust certain pollsters when we see something. However, this is wrong but the MRP's in general are not, I am trying to keep clm and think tory will still get 130

but I can't get the image of the exit poll showing less than 75 and thus LD the opposition

It's absolutely fucking disastrous for the Tories. By 4am tomorrow morning we might be on tenterhooks for who finishes second as the remote area counts dribble through. If this happens, Ed Davey may well self implode.

indeed and I keep trying to convince myself that tories get 130 and survive a wipeout (I count that as sub 75) however I can not stop the thought the voting will be so efficient we may see 10-15 reform but tories sub 60

I see sub 100 as a wipeout. It's such a psychological barrier to drop through.

oh for sure and makes the recovery so much harder with reform snapping around

I mean mate today is GOTV and LD's in particular have the best game and in their seats tories simply can not match it ... Labour are half decent but done in a different way, it is not unbelievable to think LD second, I reckon 30% chance but still

The increase in Green share would be consistent with Green supporters feeling it is safe to vote Green. The Tories will lose anyway. But the Labour decline is much bigger than that. Some is probably just noise, but all polls agree Labour have drot.

My guess is it’s exactly as you say - many people who were going to vote labour primarily as an anti Tory vote feel safe enough that the battle is won so now will cast a vote for their preferred party (green, libdem).

especially in cities where remeber the top biggest majorities in 2019 were all lab with like 35K in Liverpool etc and thats just wasted voted, 10K vote green there, who cares ??

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