So you're telling me that Labor got more votes under Corbyn as a share and an absolute number than under Starmer?
W/o digging into minoritarian electoral rule here, I wonder if the fundamental reality that more PEOPLE turned out for Corbyn will ever be reflected in the British political wisdom?
or they'll just say "wow corbyn was a disaster, we should do starmerism forever" until they got voted out by a similarly disaffected populace next time?
I think it’s a bit more complicated than “Corbyn got more votes so he’s a stronger electoral path” but there is no question that Labour’s success this time was largely driven by factors outside its control (Reform drawing so many votes and the timing of this election after 14 years of Tory rule).
Not sure that entirely follows. People and parties voted tactically against Corbyn/for Tories, tactically for Starmer/against Tories. That's probably not an accident on Starmer's part.
2017 and 2019 were also probably the exceptions in terms of Reform pulling votes, looking at UKIP votes too. Also targeting lots of seats vs safe seats is within labours control.
Similarly with timing, Tories called two early elections against Corbyn, presumably partially because they thought they could win. Then held on for almost a full term because they didn't.
Oh yea, 'entirely' being literal. Reform taking Tory votes wasn't 100% out of Starmer's control. Corbyn arguably united the right against himself, Starmer probably intentionally split it.
Right, but there’s also the contingency of so much chaos and so many bad outcomes under Tori leadership that was not as manifest in 2017 as it was in this election. That’s really I think the most important factor over anything else.
Mostly true, but brexit was a mess then and yet they felt safe enough to call a snap election to reshuffle the deck. Which they haven't felt safe enough to do since 19, so I'd argue the bad outcomes are not entirely without labour influence
Which is all to say having the swing voter not vote against you is probably as important as getting your supporters to get out and vote for you in volatile times.
