Guys. I am not a quant person but even I know that pushing a sub sample of a larger phone poll from early in June with a 0.8% response rate, where no one who ignores unlabeled numbers on their cellphone responded, tells you nothing about the electorate. Stop letting bad polls drive your politics.
But how else will I justify discarding my public beliefs in democracy, equity, and human rights in favor of my private belief that rich white daddies should tell me, and everyone, how to live?
That’s what I have been saying since the last time Trump went up against Biden. I was younger then, so back then I didn’t know.
Trump won a lot of polls, had won the debates, but came so close to winning the votes. He lost. He may lose again.
"When we called 100,000 people, 99,000 of them told us to fuck off. Here is the result of the polling of the 1000 that were bored out of their mind, or certified psychopaths".
It's the October surprise that really matters. It hasn't mattered much historically, but margins are so thin now. The Comey Letter probably finished off the Clinton campaign. A few tens of thousands of votes in 3 states shouldn't have mattered that much.
The “weighted to account for response rates” is hiding a lot of bullshit here because if this is the poll I’m thinking of like 80% of the respondents were over 65, so they’re inflating the like 5% of people under 30 who answered into 35% of the poll response
Whenever I have seen this language in academic survey work it means they have an assumption of what the ideal response rate is per demographic and then they arbitrarily apply multiples to the actual responses to match that assumption.
It is a red flag that the survey vibes, not science.
I don't think that correction fixes all the errors in your description "a sub sample of a larger phone poll from early in June with a 0.8% response rate, where no one who ignores unlabeled numbers on their cellphone responded". Where do you see this is a phone poll with a 0.8% response rate?
If you click through to the prior poll that formed the base for this sample group, there are lots and lots of questions being raised about methods and questions. Sorry Jim, but I think your skepticism needs to be directed at the hysterics taking this poll as some sort of election harbinger.
I just know that I'm an independent in a swing state (AZ) where other independents younger than I am are, if anything, more concerned than I am about Biden's cognitive capacity, and have been since before the debate. Can you supply a pointer to the methodological criticisms you mention?
