This helps explain why Trump’s average polling miss relative to 538 averages was bigger in open primary states than semi-open where Inds can choose their ballot, and bigger in those than closed primary states
Major line of evidence from voter file data that the overwhelming majority of Haley's support was from people who had *previously voted in Democratic primaries.*
That said, don't discount the importance of small numbers of Republicans crossing over in the general.
www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/u...
