Lee Drutman: Trying to figure out whether Kennedy draws more from Trump or Biden led me to plot four months of polls like this. What might explain this pattern?

Trying to figure out whether Kennedy draws more from Trump or Biden led me to plot four months of polls like this. What might explain this pattern?

RFK Jr is only polling well in places where Biden has been eviscerated culturally. In those places, he has a steady percent of the non-Biden vote. Which means, higher non_Biden, higher RFK Jr., but also higher Trump.

That's 1sigma away from no correlation... so I think it means that Kennedy is not drawing much more strongly from one of those other candidates.

Noise! I'll see myself out. (But maybe.)

bivariate regression is just on the edge of statistical significance.

Definitely in the “if there’s a correlation, it’s not a big one” territory, which is probably the main conclusion.

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