This Nate Cohn article on Trump’s over-performance among less frequent voters is worth your time, and has at least two important implications folks should be considering that the article doesn’t directly address, one substantive and one methodological www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/u...
This is a great example of why polling is bunk and why democrats are over performing in every election for the last 6 years, especially in red states.
Deriving data from people who don’t vote often is logically stupid. Hello! lol @chrislhayes.bsky.social@cnn.com
This is an extremely uninformed argument. It’s not at all an example of why polling is bunk; it is a description of voter attitudes based on polling data that shows exactly why Dems have performed well in midterm and special elections
My supposition is that polling data isn’t data in the same way horoscopes aren’t data ether. Broken clocks are right twice a day. Everyone needs to find another way of more accurately determining actual voting behavior. @chrislhayes.bsky.social@cnn.com
Yes, i understood your arguments, and find it deeply uninformed. The fact that you took a post I wrote that is *grounded in polling data* and said it’s evidence polling data is broken is proof that you’re missing the point
Everyone who works in survey research, including me, understands the limitations of survey methods. But they remain the best way to measure public opinion. Some random state house special is much less informative, particularly about presidential elections
I don’t agree. Polling has been weaponized, used to gaslight Americans. There are no standards to determine accuracy. Margin of errors are mythical. Comparing polls to actual voting behavior identifies just how inaccurate most of them are. @chrislhayes.bsky.social@cnn.com
The media use polling data to tell stories which just aren’t true. Perhaps to engage an audience (rage driven “news”) so their ratings go up.Essential to seeking advertising revenue which keeps them alive. In itself that is an undermining factor @brianstelter.bsky.social@chrislhayes.bsky.social
This is turning from misinformation to disinformation, and I’m not going to spend Fathers Day correcting some rando on Bluesky. So you’ll have to wait for a lengthy, well cited refutation. But suffice it now to say, this is deeply wrong, and you have no idea what you’re talking about
I look forward to your analysis. But take every election for the last 6 years and compare the polling for those elections with actual voting behavior for them. (And the media reporting!) And you’ll see my point. The inaccuracies are staggering. @brianstelter.bsky.social@chrislhayes.bsky.social
I’m sure you are a good faith practitioner of your work but the fact remains that after the first big NYT/Siena poll last November, Nate Cohn went on a media tour to brag that the poll was a marketing coup and that it was going to shape the campaigns’ decisions
