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If the Democrats do push Biden out, I predict there will be no consensus on a replacement candidate, leading to infighting and, ultimately, a realization that the Democrats have a stable full of flawed candidates that cannot gather national support, particularly in a short time window.
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you can emerge with a strong candidate from a field of maybes through a primary but probably not through a contested convention
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if you lean on everyone hard enough and successfully enough, you can get people all-in for Harris as Biden's heir at a convention. (do I bet everything I've got on that as a possibility? I do not.)
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your chances of a smooth transition are way better to Harris than to a broken field
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it's the safest non-Biden bet but I do not care to place that bet unless it seems like the best one.