Corey Rayburn Yung: If the Democrats do push Biden out, I predict there will be no consensus on a replacement candidate, leading to infighting and, ultimately, a realization that the Democrats have a stable full of flawed candidates that cannot gather national support, particularly in a short time window.

If the Democrats do push Biden out, I predict there will be no consensus on a replacement candidate, leading to infighting and, ultimately, a realization that the Democrats have a stable full of flawed candidates that cannot gather national support, particularly in a short time window.

Too many Democrats think their preferred candidate will magically rise to the top and every one will rally around them. They have already forgotten what happened in 2020 and how we ended up nominating Biden.

you can emerge with a strong candidate from a field of maybes through a primary but probably not through a contested convention

I mean it worked out in 1968

if you lean on everyone hard enough and successfully enough, you can get people all-in for Harris as Biden's heir at a convention. (do I bet everything I've got on that as a possibility? I do not.)

your chances of a smooth transition are way better to Harris than to a broken field

to be clear I think Harris is probably a weaker candidate than Biden, especially in the Midwest states, and I haven’t seen anything yet that persuades me otherwise

but if Biden genuinely can’t go then she’s the backup plan

It's almost as if that's the purpose of a VP (plus occasionally breaking a tie in the Senate).

Here's the question though, does that backup plan limit itself to Biden dropping out of the race before convention, or does he resign the Office so as to confer on Harris more legitimacy and a shot at incumbency bias?

I think there are voters who will vote for Harris but not Biden. Do I bet there are more of them than there are voters who will vote Biden but not Harris? I do not. ("Will you keep using all these gambling metaphors?" "You can put money on it.")

it's the safest non-Biden bet but I do not care to place that bet unless it seems like the best one.

I truly believe they have a lot of extremely strong talent that could gain widespread support over a few years leading to their presidency. But pushing out Biden to take the spot now would kill their careers and hand Trump the presidency.

Biden is going to hand Trump the presidency so might as well do something new.

Yeah this sounds like our timeline

I don't know. The case for Biden is increasingly becoming no more than "He's not the felon, autocrat, insurrectionist, rapist," etc. Any replacement candidate would have that going for them and possibly more.

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