The reason I get absorbed with this stuff is that it can show some surprising differences to the popular narratives. A lot of the time, UK election results seem to be skewed more than you'd think by FPTP. Another 🧵 on some of the figures that jump out at me:
Because I am a sad politics nerd I've been keeping track of stats relating to recent UK elections. In case they are of interest to anyone, here's a 🧵 on popular vote + related details for recent GEs:
2024 (60% turnout)
Labour – 9,650,254 (33.7%)
Tory – 6,771,974 (23.7%)
Difference = 2,878,280
The interesting thing about that one for me is that the historic Labour defeat of 2019 happened on a vote share that was 8th best out of the last 12 elections, and the historic Labour victory of 2024 was achieved on a vote share 7th best of 12
FPTP is a crazy system...
because it only obscures what is actually happening
like how labour allowed their vote share in safe seats to slip to concentrate on gaining new ones
which looks exactly the same as a party on the defensive when you look at the popular vote
I think that implies way more control over the vote in target seats than parties actually have. Of course more campaigning goes on in target seats relative to ones that are seen as unwinnable but the national parties run national campaigns and most voters get their info from non-local sources
The strategy you describe is exactly what Labour tried to do in 2019 when it did very badly under FPTP and what it failed to do in 2017 (for unfortunate internal reasons) when it did relatively better
Yes, but my point is that it's about the vagaries of an unrepresentative system more than parties playing that system. The results hide the amount of support a party has in the country which, even given tactical voting and campaigning, is broadly reflected in the number/proportion of votes cast
My sense of it is that the Labour vote is dangerously soft, and really not that high. There isn't a great deal of goodwill like there was in 1997, and I don't think it would take much to see the Tories recovering very quickly. If they find the right leader (big if) they could overturn this in a term
I think it all depends on how right they go. Lowering the voting age to 16 as Labour have said and I can quite easily see the Lib Dem’s getting significantly more of the vote share rather than a swing back to the Tories.
I'm not sure Votes at 16 would do much to help Labour based on these results, young voters are dropping the party like a stone. 16 years being allowed to vote would've probably cost Wes Streeting his seat.
